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Thread: S. FL Forecast

  1. #1

    S. FL Forecast

    I just moved down to Miami and I gotta say the forecasts down here have been consistently way off. It has been a minimum of 2 feet smaller, usually 3 or 4, for every swell for the last 2 months. It's a disappointing comparison to the Delmarva forecasts. Before this I lived in DC and knew that if swellinfo was calling it, it was probably going to be worth the drive. Down here the models don't seem to be taking the Bahama shadow into account. At least now it takes me a less than 30 minutes to do a spot check as opposed to 3 hours, and I've still managed to catch some fun waves futher north.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2006
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    Lewes, DE
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    Quote Originally Posted by FLtransplant View Post
    I just moved down to Miami and I gotta say the forecasts down here have been consistently way off. It has been a minimum of 2 feet smaller, usually 3 or 4, for every swell for the last 2 months. It's a disappointing comparison to the Delmarva forecasts. Before this I lived in DC and knew that if swellinfo was calling it, it was probably going to be worth the drive. Down here the models don't seem to be taking the Bahama shadow into account. At least now it takes me a less than 30 minutes to do a spot check as opposed to 3 hours, and I've still managed to catch some fun waves futher north.
    agreed, there is a known bias here. The bermuda shadowing is not being appropriately modeled, where on a NE ground swell there is too much swell reaching south of Palm Beach. Will be working on running a high-res nearshore model for south Florida to better model the shadowing.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    St. Augustine
    Posts
    21
    Quote Originally Posted by FLtransplant View Post
    I just moved down to Miami and I gotta say the forecasts down here have been consistently way off. It has been a minimum of 2 feet smaller, usually 3 or 4, for every swell for the last 2 months. It's a disappointing comparison to the Delmarva forecasts. Before this I lived in DC and knew that if swellinfo was calling it, it was probably going to be worth the drive. Down here the models don't seem to be taking the Bahama shadow into account. At least now it takes me a less than 30 minutes to do a spot check as opposed to 3 hours, and I've still managed to catch some fun waves futher north.
    Miami gets waves?

  4. #4
    Awesome. I got some great waves while living in DC, mainly thanks to your forecasts being spot on so much of the time.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Ft. Lauderdale
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    4
    Quote Originally Posted by OGmd View Post
    Miami gets waves?
    Nope, never.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    St. Augustine
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    21
    thats what i figured

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    pensacola beach
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    229
    it's the exact oppisite for the gulf coast forcast... most of the time...

    if SwellInfo calls for waist high, it's an easy chest high..., if they call for chest high, it's an easy head high...

    not complaining one bit, it's definatly the most accurate forcaster for my area... plus it's a great suprise when it's forcasted to be thigh high and the next morning i wake up and it's way bigger and better than forcasted.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    St. Augustine
    Posts
    21
    haha thats always a nice suprise when it says its less than ankle it turns out to be ankle to knee

  9. #9

    yea

    You gotta know all of the local spots. There is always place that is consistently better than the crowded normal spot. So chill