Just wanted to mention that several tropical models are pointing towards a Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane making landfall in NYC, Jersey or New England this weekend. Not sure if anyone is following this or not, but thought I'd throw it out there on the table. Could spoil a potentially epic weekend of surf for Long Island. Time will tell...
I think it's actually the season's first Nor'easter like storm, hence the huge swell heights, and NE-Easterly flow. It's been brewing for awhile off the Carolinas, I think the system stretches as far as Florida. Micah will have to correct us on this.
I was actually referring to the low that's over Hispaniola right now. (#93L, soon to be Tropical Storm Kyle by Wednesday I would assume). As it breaks away from the islands and westerly sheer relaxes, it has the potential to quickly become a hurricane, possibly as strong as a 2 or 3, before it comes barreling up the East coast into New England.
As for the other system off the Carolina coast, that could also take on some tropical characteristics, if not a hybrid type system, and back West into the Carolinas late in the week. Lots to watch and a potentially dangerous situation for the NE with the hurricane. Tons of swell, not so sure about those winds though...
I see the GFDL has gone much further east along the lines of the GFS, which is surprising due to the fact that of any of the models, the GFS always seem to be the most out of touch with tropical systems since it doesn't play into all the warm water and heat energy stored up. Guess we'll see with future runs and how this other low developing off the SE coast shapes up, as well as the stregnth and position of the high. I just don't buy into that atlantic escape route.
Latest runs showing a general consensus on a New England hit. All the runs that went east have trended west again. 93L is a bit ragged right now but what can you expect out of a storm thats been holding ground for so many days now. Tomorrow it should pull north just as has been forecast and escape some of that sheer. My thinking is we'll definitely be looking at a depression tomorrow, maybe even a tropical storm by night or early Thursday.
The track forecast
The models are now in fairly good agreement that a strong coastal storm--which could be extratropical or subtropical--will develop off the coast of North Carolina tonight. This storm will affect coastal North Carolina like a weak tropical storm would, with sustained winds of 40 mph, tide levels up to six feet above normal, and 2-3 inches of rain. As 93L is drawn northwards, the two storms will interact, and 93L will get flung northwards towards New England or the Maritime Provinces of Canada. The U.S. East Coast can expect considerable rain for the four day period beginning on Wednesday (Figure 1), but I am expecting that most of this will be due to the coastal low drawing in large amounts of tropical moisture as it tracks north-northeast up the coast. I currently give 93L a 30% chance of hitting the U.S., 60% chance of hitting Canada, and 10% chance of recurving out to sea. There is a high amount of uncertainty with this forecast.
The intensity forecast
Wind shear remains near 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 5-15 knots for the remainder of the week. The GFDL and HWRF models are less aggressive than previous runs in intensifying 93L, and I doubt the storm would hit New England or Canada as anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm. There is a large amount of dry air to the northwest of 93L it will have to contend with, and a good potential it may encounter some high wind shear.