Don't be so quick to write off the chance of it maintaining hurricane strength. While it is uncommon, a tropical system in it's position this time of year can come up the coast at tremendous speeds. Look at the 1938 hurricane that slammed Long Island as a cat 3. It was moving well over 50mph north so its time spent over cooler waters was not long enough for it to weaken. Anything is possible, and if the system does manage to rapidly intensify and come racing up the coast, someone from New Jersey up to New England could be having a really bad weekend.
Keep an eye on it.
And oh yeah, how about the storm thats about to slam the carolinas with 60mph winds and torrential rain thursday. Tropical storm anyone?
93L hasn't really been doing what it's been supposed to be doing, it's not very organized, and the wind shear is higher than was forecasted. Then again, Fay didn't follow the rules, either, who knows at this point?
Kman - 20 years ago - yes, I am really that old - there were so many places on Long Island - well known and not so well known - that really lit up on various types of swell. Now everything is so eroded or just destroyed from the ACOE's "efforts" at beach rehab.
Long Beach is a very consistent break, but does close out around 2' OH, then again, it depends on what jetty you're at. They all have their own characteristics. East of LB used to be the shiznit back in the day, breaking way higher than LB and just sick. It's still a good break and I love it, just different. Sad.
Latest runs showing a general consensus on a New England hit. All the runs that went east have trended west again. 93L is a bit ragged right now but what can you expect out of a storm thats been holding ground for so many days now. Tomorrow it should pull north just as has been forecast and escape some of that sheer. My thinking is we'll definitely be looking at a depression tomorrow, maybe even a tropical storm by night or early Thursday.
The track forecast
The models are now in fairly good agreement that a strong coastal storm--which could be extratropical or subtropical--will develop off the coast of North Carolina tonight. This storm will affect coastal North Carolina like a weak tropical storm would, with sustained winds of 40 mph, tide levels up to six feet above normal, and 2-3 inches of rain. As 93L is drawn northwards, the two storms will interact, and 93L will get flung northwards towards New England or the Maritime Provinces of Canada. The U.S. East Coast can expect considerable rain for the four day period beginning on Wednesday (Figure 1), but I am expecting that most of this will be due to the coastal low drawing in large amounts of tropical moisture as it tracks north-northeast up the coast. I currently give 93L a 30% chance of hitting the U.S., 60% chance of hitting Canada, and 10% chance of recurving out to sea. There is a high amount of uncertainty with this forecast.
The intensity forecast
Wind shear remains near 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 5-15 knots for the remainder of the week. The GFDL and HWRF models are less aggressive than previous runs in intensifying 93L, and I doubt the storm would hit New England or Canada as anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm. There is a large amount of dry air to the northwest of 93L it will have to contend with, and a good potential it may encounter some high wind shear.