i've been hearin' tawk of El NINO returnin' and wuz wunderin' if ne 1 else haz heard rumorz uv this reecintleey? if so, what duz this doo 4 surf along thu west vs. east coast? i've bin noticin' MANEEY lowz pullin' off thu coast south uv wrong island and wuz wunderin' if this iz uh reaction 2 EL NINO? thanx 4 ne help...
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
4 June 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: Conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.
ENSO-neutral conditions persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during May 2009. However, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased for the fifth consecutive month, with above-average temperatures extending across the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the end of May (Fig. 1). Accordingly, the latest weekly SST indices ranged between +0.4o to +0.5°C in all four Niño regions (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also continued to increase in response to a large area of above-average temperatures (+2° to +4°C) near thermocline depth (Fig. 4). These surface and subsurface oceanic anomalies typically precede the development of El Niño.
From early 2007 through April 2009, enhanced low-level easterly winds persisted near the Date Line, interrupted only briefly by Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity. However, during May 2009, both the lower-level equatorial winds were near-average in that region despite the absence of the MJO. Also, suppressed convection expanded westward along the equator from the Date Line to Indonesia. The recent oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions, but also reflect the evolution towards a potential El Niño.
There continues to be considerable spread in the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5). All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009. However, most dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System, predict the onset of El Niño during June - August 2009. Current observations, recent trends, and the dynamical model forecasts indicate that conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: firstname.lastname@example.org.
hey admin. so would u say that we're IN en EL NINO pattern rite now?
duz it get better on thu west coast during EL NINO and SH**TIER on thu east coast? i haven't seen ne thing over waist high on wrong island in like, 8 months so far. thu west coast haz bin goin' off...thanx.
the national oceanic and atmospheric administration has good quality links and weather maps that can help you find some answers, or conversely i can tell you that el nino means fewer hurricanes (due to increased vertical wind sheer) and the by-product awesome groundswells on the east coast, however this is all theoretical so those who subscribe to a different school of thought (climate change and such) would argue that there will be more hurricanes. so the only practical thing you can do is watch the swell and weather maps and hope for the best, or make a weather controlling machine that makes ground swells.
While fewer tropical storms do go hand in hand with an El Nino event, this one looks rather weak. Not only that, but current thinking is that most tropical systems that do form this year will generally be taking shape off the SE coast of the States instead of out in the tropical Atlantic. (cause for this is primarily too much shear out there and too much dust in the atmosphere... cooler water temps too, which all inhibit development) So while we may not see a record number of storms this year, we certainly have excellent potential for some solid groundswell if development is indeed focused close to home. Nothings set in stone obviously as Mother Nature will do what she wants, so lets just hope for the best.