Yeah, I read about that a week or so ago too. THey are already claiming a full on El Nino over here in the Pacific. They are comparing this years potential El Nino Activity to the record setting one back in the winter of 1998-99 out here. Swell got 20+ ft consistently all winter. The OB Pier was almost complete destoyed. I have pictured or TOH sets just pummling the Pier Cafe.
So, the whole west coast is waxing their guns right now. But hey, who knows how accurate any of this is.
This year WAS the la Nina. That is why the SoCal winter was damn near perfect. like 2 days of drizzle and completely calm dry heat with santa anas. The La Nina Affect out here on the west coast keeps the NW winter swells inconsistent and smaller and the water temps stay much colder.
Look at the San Diego Water temp today. On a typiacl July day, we are already up to 70-72 degrees. The water this entire week has been 60-64....
So there was for sure a La Nina event this year, but El Nino is gonna rear her ugly head this winter... That means back on the east coast, the Jet Stream will shift to the south I believe. Which will create a mild winter for the entire mid-atlantic. This shift in the jet stream will also decrease the Tropical Storm Activity back east.
So in theory, you guys should have an indian summer kind of thing with lower precipitation and storm activity. And the Pacific North west (Washington etc, who get rain and gloom al year will be relieved with some sunshine throughout the winter, as the moisture and rain shift down the california coast.
This year they are predicting 28 inches of rain in the El Nino year, which is almost TRIPPLE what our normal rainfall averages are...
P.S. One of my pet peaves with surfers visiting california (SD expecially), is that they come out here in the summer...
Here is some advice. COME OUT HERE THIS WINTER. Come out in January. February. When the swells are marking in day after day after day. Water temps never get below 54 or so. I mean, we get offshore wind or no wind at all. The NW swells pump and there is NO BODY OUT!!! You know how many days I get over head surf ALONE out on sunset cliffs, the most crowded place on earth!!!! You all gotta come out here this winter. Even if just for a few days. Bring a 3 or 4 mil and a shortboard and you will be lovnig life...
It just seems like all my surfing friends always show up here in the summer, when its 2-3 ft every ady and there are unbelievable crowds.
Results 11 to 19 of 19
Thread: Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes...
Jul 13, 2009, 01:38 AM #11
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
- Hilton Head Island - OB, SD
Jul 13, 2009, 02:16 AM #13
Wrap some of that swell up and send it over here, or maybe we can dig a canal thru middle america deep enough to wrap swell thru
Thats why you've got to travel. I just got back from hawaii. ME and my friends got screwed though it was overhead for weeks straight before we got there and the biggest wave while we were there on the south shore of oahu was only shoulder hi. IT was still fun though.
Anyways you gotta find some other hobbies to do besides surfing especially if you live on the east coast or else you'll end up just sitting around waiting for waves wasting your time. Wakeboard, skateboard, anything and then when there is surf, youll be ready. You cant sit on the computer and try to see what the waves are gonna be like a week from now, much less in september. Itll defenitley change and youll only get yourself worked up over nothing. The waves will come...
Jul 13, 2009, 03:42 AM #16
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
- Hilton Head Island - OB, SD
Yeah, I feel you guys. I am thinking that I will end up back east either in OCMD, VB or wilmington in the next couple of years once we are married. We just have tons of family back there etc. And I am originally from MD and grew up around OC, so I am well aware of the consistency issues as well as the local weather concerns, and with that being said, I have been spending tons of time on the golf course and out sailing with my friends in an untimate preperation for less time in the water. My Fiance is super cool with my surfing. SHe has been filming me surf and supporting my lifestyle for years, so although I getting married soon, im not worried about that aspect keeping my dry, but I do understand that the east coast is a waiting game.
Dont get me wrong, I love a good OC MD swell. Clean glass. Nice little tubes. But its just fickle ya know.
I am just getting used to the fact that I may wake up on a ton of days and not have the option to surf. LIving here, I wake up each day, first I determine the size of the surf, because even on a "flat day" there are two foot LB waves. So, in Cali, you wake up, check the surf. Choose you board size for that day. Then most importantly, which break to go to... And most importantly, you can be a lazy sh** and wake up at 2PM and there is still swell. Swell doesnt get blown out here. Swells are almost always groundswell, so they are around all day and all night. Its not the short little bursts like back east when the offshore wind flow kills the chest high swell by lunch time. You can wake up drunk as sh** one day and paddle out anywhere you want. It makes people get lazy.
I guess the east coast order of operations is a bit different. It is, Wake up, (depending on the time of year, chcek the weather and see if surfing is a viable option even with a little swell), then you cross your fingers and hope that the local windswell filled in over night. Determine if there is ridable surf that day, and if there is, then you must choose which little sand bar will pack the most punch. Most of the time, you will be disapointed and have to drive home dry. And then you go to your alternatives. Your wakeboarding. Your golf. Your sailing. Your fishing.
And im down with all that. I imagine in my head that it will not be that big of a deal missing a week here or there.
Its jsut weird though, if I take 1-2 days out of the water here, when I paddle back out, my first wave or two is just not as tight as I wouldl like. You gotta get limber and get your mojo working. I am just afraid of what happens to the body/joints etc if you have a couple of weeks in between sessions. Havent had that issue in years. I would imagine that you would feel pretty stiff for a little bit. Might just be a little off you know?
Not sure, what do you guys think? Do you think you guys lose a step or two when you have big lulls back east with no surf? Or when the swell comes after that couple of weeks do you guys feel that you just go out and kill it because of all the pent up agression? I guess it could work either way. All I am saying is that I am 29, and over the past two yeasrs or so, it is getting harder for me to do things like grab my rail during an air, or coil down super low through a crazy turn. It has forced me to do Yoga and sh** like that to stay on top of my physical game. Cause Im in great shape at 29, but Im already getting an inch or two less on my boosts and stuff, and I am out in the water EVERY day still. So, its a little daunting to think that lack of swell might hurt my over all surfing.
Last edited by zach619; Jul 13, 2009 at 03:50 AM.
Really, though, you can surf almost everyday with the discipline and the knowledge. Granted, you'll have to ride a log, but so what? A long as you get in the water.
Jul 13, 2009, 03:29 PM #19
on the day im not surfing if it during a weekend then i might be out on my friends boat free boarding or ill go ride my bike or ill mow my neighbor yard.