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  1. #1

    Bill swell overhyped??

    The numbers Swellinfo is putting up for hurricane Bill are confusing. The interval can't be as long as they say it is with the size. The storm just isn't big enough. 10 ft. @ 17 sec. is being predicted for much of the coast and thats the number that starts Mavericks breaking??? I'm from Nor Cal and I know what it takes too make those swells and it takes a much larger storm. This is probably going to be a CAT 3 storm passing a few hundred miles offshore. That doesn't seem worthy of those generous interval numbers. At best the peak of the swell will arrive with 14 sec. behind it. Also, the interval will effect breaks differently because of swell refraction and those areas nearest to the continental shelf will be significantly stronger (OBX will focus more energy and surge as well as south facing spots like NY and RI). I'm expecting the significant swell energy to roll in around 5-8 ft. at 14 sec. These numbers are a little more believable and if you research other swell forecasts I think this falls more in line. I could be wrong but 10ft. @ 17 sec. sounds out of place to me. Perhaps the Swell Info guy can better explain the prediction.

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by wik View Post
    The numbers Swellinfo is putting up for hurricane Bill are confusing. The interval can't be as long as they say it is with the size. The storm just isn't big enough. 10 ft. @ 17 sec. is being predicted for much of the coast and thats the number that starts Mavericks breaking??? I'm from Nor Cal and I know what it takes too make those swells and it takes a much larger storm. This is probably going to be a CAT 3 storm passing a few hundred miles offshore. That doesn't seem worthy of those generous interval numbers. At best the peak of the swell will arrive with 14 sec. behind it. Also, the interval will effect breaks differently because of swell refraction and those areas nearest to the continental shelf will be significantly stronger (OBX will focus more energy and surge as well as south facing spots like NY and RI). I'm expecting the significant swell energy to roll in around 5-8 ft. at 14 sec. These numbers are a little more believable and if you research other swell forecasts I think this falls more in line. I could be wrong but 10ft. @ 17 sec. sounds out of place to me. Perhaps the Swell Info guy can better explain the prediction.
    I hope so, because double overhead isn't exactly the friendliest wave to surf

  3. #3
    the only thing that really matters is the direction and the wind cause there is gonna be surf everywhere, 5-8 @ 14 is head high to 2ft or so overhead at the right break. Also I think everyone is overly stoked but ya never know, tings change

  4. #4
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    This hurricane is a very wide storm... It is quite impressive, and I can't recall such a scenario where we received such a large swell from a hurricane.

    You are correct in that many of your average breaks will not handle the long period swells, and the continental shelf will play a major roll.

    Having said that, the offshore swell energy predicted by Swellinfo, is based on using hurricane models, while other sites are not using this...

    I will have a video update today if I can ever find my microphone.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Swellinfo View Post
    This hurricane is a very wide storm... It is quite impressive, and I can't recall such a scenario where we received such a large swell from a hurricane.
    .

    This is true, Bill seems to be taken that classic path we have not seen in a while. It seems the last 7 or 8 years systems have either hugged the coast giving most of us unfavorable winds, or have been too far away to give us significant size. The foward motion of the storm has pointed to the south-east coast for several days, I believe this swell will be bigger than alot of you think. I just hope we don't get south-west cross/chop at Wrightsville Beach.

  6. #6
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    dont forget that bill is still 4 or 5 days away... swell will definitely be on the way, but the track and proximity to the coast will be crucial for coastal winds.

  7. #7
    Join Date
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    Either way for me since I missed the last good swell a couple weeks ago, I will be happy to see it come in as clean as they are predicting. Double overhead...well I believe I would sit on the beach and watch it...6'-8' and 14 seconds is still a good set of numbers and I might even try to venture out . Lets see what happens and pray there are no losses of life over the weekend.

  8. #8
    I remember when you had to actually drive to the beach to check the surf - you guys should try it.
    Last edited by WBLoafer; Aug 18, 2009 at 12:56 PM.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by WBLoafer View Post
    I remember when you had to actually drive to the beach to check the surf - you guys should try it.
    I'd rather walk

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by WBLoafer View Post
    I remember when you had to actually drive to the beach to check the surf - you guys should try it.
    there is still nothing like checking it in person - there's not a webcam or online report out there that tell you exactly what's happening at your beach