For anybody who is taking off work and/or hinging their lives on the weekend's forecast, remember it can easily change. I'm preempting all the haters on here and reminding them that we're dealing with nature. There is an entire cable channel dedicating to forecasting the weather and they don't even get that right half the time. So until about Friday afternoon, my advice is to pretty much ignore the forecast and keep your fingers crossed. That is of course if I didn't jinx it all by mentioning it in an internet forum thread.
Im not getting too stoked either. Magic Seaweed is also saying only knee high for sunday so its 2 against one Surfline and Magicseaweed vs. swell info. Who do you think will be right?
in all likely hood...all three will be right...it will be knee high in some places and wiast-stomach in others. It looks like another steeply angled s/ssw wind swell. just like a couple of weeks ago when everyone seemed shocked/pissed at the internet gods that certain spots were knee high and others waist-chest when it has always been that way in these setups. These glancing s/sw swells will hit better at spots that are exposed to the south but maybe with a bit of wind protection and bottom contours/structures to focus a bit of swell into a peak ...use your imagination.
Last edited by mitchell; Apr 28, 2010 at 03:30 PM.
i sortof like the way surfline does things... They only provide a "detailed" forecast for the short-term. Then they have a paragraph explaining the possibilities for the longer range forecast, giving a "discussion" of possible approaching systems, and what their impact COULD be.
For me, this not only gives me an idea of what could happen, but also what could go wrong, and thus a realistic idea of the future. Is there any way swellinfo can add this type of "discussion" paragraph, explaining WHY were calling for waves in the distant future? And also possible problems and hurdles this system/low/storm/hurricane/Nor'Easter will have to overcome before giving us waves?
its a SW wind swell scenario - so definitely too far down the line to have any certainty at this point. As the weather model guidance changes, so does the surf forecast.
For Central New Jersey, often the beginning stages of the SW wind swell is often over estimated, when the periods are very short - 4-7 seconds. As the swell peaks the longer period S wind swell makes it into more areas in the Central NJ area.
Mr Swellinfo, can you please give me some good news for this weekend in virginia beach, I have a contest on saturday and sunday and im dieing to compete, but it will probally be cancelled if the surf is flat