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Thread: Weak spring

  1. #1
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    Weak spring

    So far this spring has been pretty weak .We all know how flat the summer can be .Hopefully things can pick up a little bit.I"ll take anything at this point.

  2. #2
    yeah i hear ya. it has sucked. last spring was better, but then it wasn't nearly as warm either. i was still using a hood this time last year. ocean was at least 8-10 degrees cooler mothers day of last year. ironically though as cool, and chilly as last spring was mothers day 09 was actually a lot warmer than today. it had to be almost 80 degrees which is a rarity last spring. aside from a week of 90s in late april, and a few days in the 70s here and there, and 60s it was pretty cool, and nasty. it hasn't been so bad for me cause i've had more work than i would otherwise want, but at least i don't feel like i'm missing out. now if some good consistent swells do come through soon i won't have to be working as hard.

  3. #3
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    So far this spring has been pretty weak .We all know how flat the summer can be .Hopefully things can pick up a little bit.I"ll take anything at this point.
    Yeah this spring is actually feeling pretty similar to summer. The second half of May is forecasted to be less pleasant and definitely wetter than it has been in the south east. We have had some amazing beach days for early spring but the waves have been basically terrible. A couple little ssw wind swells here and there but nothing great. We need this high pressure that is dominating to move out and allow some low pressure systems to drop into the south east and produce a solid swell.
    On the other hand, we are transitioning from a super el nino back to what many climatologists believe may be a very powerful la nina. We all know what that means, hurricane season is gonna be awesome this year. The Atlantic SST anomalies are off the chain and that combined with the favorable shear and reduced SAL due to the Nina are going to come together to be an amazing summer and fall for east coast surfers. Get ready this is early but i wanna make the call that this is going to be one of the top 5 years for storms of all time. Good for waves, however it might be bad for people in the path of some of these Nina fueled monsters.

  4. #4
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    A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

    El Niņo weakened during April 2010 as positive surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, SST anomalies still exceeded +0.5oC across most of the Pacific at the end of the month (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). Since the end of February, subsurface heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) have decreased steadily in association with the expansion and strengthening of below-average temperatures at depth (25-200m; Fig. 4). Also, enhanced convection developed over Indonesia, while suppressed convection strengthened and expanded over the tropical Pacific, south of the equator (Fig. 5). The low-level equatorial trade winds remained near-average, and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed over the central Pacific during much of April. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a weakening El Niņo.

    Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niņo-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010 (Fig. 6). Most models predict a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April-June 2010, followed by ENSO-neutral conditions through the end of the year. However, by July-September 2010, the envelope of model solutions includes a significant number (nearly a third) indicating the onset of La Niņa conditions. Even though ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely during the second half of the year, the general tendency of the models in recent months has been toward increasingly negative SST anomalies in the Niņo-3.4 region. These forecasts, in addition to various oceanic and atmospheric indicators, indicate a growing possibility of La Niņa developing during the second half of 2010.

    By the way this post is a couple weeks old and the pacific is already experiencing neutral conditions in the Nino 3.4 region. This means the Nino is gone for good and weakening faster than predicted.
    Last edited by ecoastprock; May 10, 2010 at 04:19 AM.

  5. #5
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    spring was awful in the last 3 weeks its been above waist for maybe 2 days

  6. #6
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    This spring has definitely sucked. I just hope summer doesn't get worse. At least we have the tropical potential in the summer.

  7. #7
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    How much would it suck for the south east if the best summer in recent history get's shut down because of oil slick... sorry for being a downer but I just can't pass it out of my mind.

  8. #8
    Pray, Pray, Pray for Hurricanes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. #9
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    yea...

    Quote Originally Posted by terra-firma intolerant View Post
    How much would it suck for the south east if the best summer in recent history get's shut down because of oil slick... sorry for being a downer but I just can't pass it out of my mind.
    Exactly what I was thinking...hopefully BP can help us get this thing under control, I just think of all the poor bastards who surf the FL panhandle and Texas, really feel for those guys, as if they don't have it hard enough already.