Currently Ernesto is sitting over Cuba as a fairly meager Tropical Storm, due to land interaction obstructing any major strenghtening of the system. How the land intereaction affects Ernesto over the next 24 hours could be very crucial in the the potential for regeneration as he heads out into the Florida straits and towards South Florida.
The models are in fairly good aggreement, that the system looks to head into the South Florida region near early Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), puts Ernesto at Cat 1 status, but warns that there is potential for Cat 2+ depending of where the storm emerges off of Cuba back into the warm energy producing waters.
So obviously, south Florida needs to be on the lookout for both shelter options and a potentialy rare, solid S wind swell. At this point, it looks like the gulf surfers are going to have to wait a little longer for surf (there used to it). What is most up in the air right now is the path Ernesto will take after Wednesday...
Florida South Swell potential:
And, it appears there is a reasonable chance that the storm could emmerge off the Central Florida coast into the warm Atlantic waters. This would allow for re-strenthening to occur and the potentail for significant swell produciton along the Southeast coast, and possibly further north depending on the exact track - and if the storm moves east of Hatteras.
Here's the computer model guidance as of Monday morning:
I'll provide more updates over the next days on Ernesto's surf making potential.
Check out wunderground for some good tropical resources and stats on Ernesto: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical
Last edited by Swellinfo; Aug 29, 2006 at 02:42 AM.