Currently Ernesto is sitting over Cuba as a fairly meager Tropical Storm, due to land interaction obstructing any major strenghtening of the system. How the land intereaction affects Ernesto over the next 24 hours could be very crucial in the the potential for regeneration as he heads out into the Florida straits and towards South Florida.
The models are in fairly good aggreement, that the system looks to head into the South Florida region near early Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), puts Ernesto at Cat 1 status, but warns that there is potential for Cat 2+ depending of where the storm emerges off of Cuba back into the warm energy producing waters.
So obviously, south Florida needs to be on the lookout for both shelter options and a potentialy rare, solid S wind swell. At this point, it looks like the gulf surfers are going to have to wait a little longer for surf (there used to it). What is most up in the air right now is the path Ernesto will take after Wednesday...
Florida South Swell potential:
And, it appears there is a reasonable chance that the storm could emmerge off the Central Florida coast into the warm Atlantic waters. This would allow for re-strenthening to occur and the potentail for significant swell produciton along the Southeast coast, and possibly further north depending on the exact track - and if the storm moves east of Hatteras.
Here's the computer model guidance as of Monday morning:
I'll provide more updates over the next days on Ernesto's surf making potential.
Check out wunderground for some good tropical resources and stats on Ernesto: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical
Last edited by Swellinfo; Aug 29, 2006 at 01:42 AM.
The models are in pretty good agreement on Ernesto at this point...
We are talking about a strong Tropical Storm or Cat 1 hurricane moving right up along the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday through Sunday, and it looks like everyone from Miami through Maine will get a taste of Earny.
It looks like many areas will see moderate to solid wind swell, but what is most in question is clean up/shifting wind potential. Using the winds on the wave maps are a good way to see the circulation around the storm and when potential wind shifts will occurr.
Have fun... I'll try to throw some updates on here for specific locations that are looking particularly bueno.
Well, today (8/30) Earny's impact is on So. Florida:
Choppy, S/SE winds will create chest to head+ range wind swell, but with lots of current and chop through the early day. It looks like winds will be shifting SW late in the day, so some spots could see a cleanup. Def. expect lots of current.
East Florida Wave Map for 5pm on Wednesday - Notice the SW winds in South Florida:
Moving into Thursday, it looks like North Florida and Georgia/South Carolina will get their chance for solid surf with shifting offshore winds...
Below is the Swellinfo Surfplot for Edisto Beach, South Carolina... Notice the wind shift around midday on Thursday.
Last edited by Swellinfo; Aug 30, 2006 at 01:55 PM.
OK. Earny takes on the Southeast coast today (Thursday August 31).
Earnesto has moved off the Florida coastline last night and into the early day, and has since gathered strength and is looking much more impressive in satellite view:
Wave heights along the southeast coast are going to start off kind of meager, and rise quickly through the day. Below is the surfplots for Folly Beach, SC:
As you can see wave heights are going to rise quickly and fall quickly, so not much leftovers are expected for Folly Beach on Friday. Notice the wind shift on the surfplots. This northerly wind shift willl occur when the center of Earnesto p***es to the north, and the storm surf will try to clean up.
Here is a wave map for 2pm Thursday, showing the sig. wave heights being produced offshore. Notice the circulation around the South Carolina coast:
The east facing beaches in the Southern NC region look to be cleaning up, but this swell is become much more SW, and is fading fast around the Wrightsville area.
As you can see by the buoy data below, wave heights are quickly rising in the Mid Atlantic. The outer banks is victory at sea with S/SE winds 30+ and overhead blown out storm surf. This will be moving northward through the day and into Saturday for the New Jersey region and Sunday into New England.
Areas from Delmarva through New Jersey could see conditions clean up Saturday through Sunday from north to south as the storm p***es by and winds lighten up. Allthough offshore wind shifts are still questionable in many places during the weekend.
Last edited by Swellinfo; Sep 1, 2006 at 02:21 PM.
Ernesto has lost his tropical characteristics and is no longer considered a tropical storm. However, the interactions of his remenance with a high pressure to the north is creating a very strong E/SE flow (30-40+kt winds) in the Mid Atlantic region, which will be spreading into New England on Sunday. While, no longer a tropical storm, Earny is currently creating his biggest surf with buoys readings off the Mid Atlantic coast between 15-20ft over the past 12-24 hours.
Below is the GFS surface pressure map forecasts from 12 to 72 hours. Notice the pressure gradient from the High in New England, and the remanence of Earesto to the south:
Spots along the Outer Banks and VB are seeing cleaned up surf this morning in the 3-5' range, while areas northward are still blown out.
On Sunday, New Jersey could see prime surf as light offshore winds look to be the call with head to overhead surf on tap.
And, on Monday, New England breaks should turn on with westerly winds moving in:
Last edited by Swellinfo; Sep 2, 2006 at 04:19 PM.