Colin

[Swellinfo]

So I'm no scientist by any stretch of the means, but I was wondering if anyone has read anything linking the desertification of the Sahara to more hurricane killing dust in the atmosphere. I know Saharan dust can kill hurricanes and it seems to be that as the Sahara grows, there will be more dust in the atmosphere, making it harder for hurricanes to develop.

I'd be interested on your take Micah.

i haven't really looked into this too deeply, but the meteorological cause and effect is pretty straight forward. Tropical storms develop through convection, where the initiation of the cyclone is driven by warm moist air over the tropical ocean rising The atmosphere above the sea surface has to be conducive for the convective process and cyclone development. And a dry, dusty air mass is NOT conducive for cyclonic development.

[surfnut1018]

It seems to me that if the Sahara is spreading at 48 kilometers a year, that would have some effect on hurricane development. I'd be interested to see if someone has studied this in any kind of detail to try and figure out to what extent that impact would be

[beachbreak]

where did the weakening/shear come from when it was forecast/projected path to strengthen,and will it still send swell?

[pvjumper05]

at least it seems that there will be surfable leftovers

[mitchell]

where did the weakening/shear come from when it was forecast/projected path to strengthen,and will it still send swell?

I was just checking the latest (noon) models and even tho the storm has been downgraded, the swell forecast hasnt really hasnt changed much for the weekend from yesterday (not like it was big to begin with) and the swell seems to want to hang on into Monday/tuesday. There a lot of SE wind fetch aimed at the east coast whether its part of something named or not.

[CharlieInOC]

A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 185% of average. These are the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

This pretty much insures a lack luster season for us!!!

[beachbreak]

awesome storm

[pvjumper05]

thatta boy colin, thatta boy

[Austin Weinheimer]

i don't think tropical storms read message boards.

haha true...

[mikeb2056]

Tropical storm Colin is like Herpes....just when you think it's gone.....IT'S BACK!!