Colin passed by us to the west of the Bermuda (68 W). Unless it's a pretty strong storm our swell window is typically 65 W. When I originally posted the models showed TD 6 track recurving around 55W. In order for a storm that far away to make swell for us it has to be pretty strong (ie lots of fetch). TD 6 will not get as close as Colin but the models are now showing it possible that it could reach 65 W.
My point was Colin was way the hell out there and was weak in strength (saving grace was path and some fetch thrown our way). And yes, I agree, maybe for us to experience significant swell, we would be better off having a storm west of 65. But for us to see swell and swell that could be be decent at the right spot (due to angle and period), is not unreasonable. The path this storm is taking, plus the potential strength, size, and fetch all make this very possible. Currently the storm was about 12 to 24 hours ahead of schedule for becoming a TS and in the current and upcoming environments, I will not be surprised that this exceedance of expectations on forecast strength, etc. continues. One thing is for sure...long range forecasts, as always, have been quite variable in its final destination and the path to get there. Prime example is two of yesterdays GFS models (not necessarily the best for tropical systems) have Danielle meandering for 1.5 days south of 40 at about 60-ish. We have seen quite fun swells from past storms (tropical and extra) hanging in the vicinity of this Lat/Long. Yet today's, have her scooting quickly north and east. All depends on the position and strength of the trough giving us the windswell this week.
Either way...windswell early to midweek and long period stuff mid to late weekend. Get wet!!
i always read those articles on weather.com. i am actually trying to find things about this new system down off the african coast. It says there is a 60% chance or Tropical Cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. so it's a safe assumption that danielle won't be reaching the coastline here in the united states. what about the next one though? there are two reasons i am sweating that one. first reason is that i will be in florida[st pete area] labor day weekend, and hoping i don't miss some desirable surf. second reason is i am petrified of it hitting town while i am not around. when hurricane ernesto hit in 06 it knocked down trees, and crushed cars in my neighborhood. though i wasn't yet living here, but i did see the damage. ernesto was a category one also. isabel was a category 5 in 03, and didn't even leave a dent up here other than a lot of rain. i don't think isabel affected us as bad. so what's on tap for the next system? by the way i am ready to roll this weekend, and later in the week for the danielle swells.