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Thread: Danielle

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by eatswell View Post
    i always read those articles on weather.com. i am actually trying to find things about this new system down off the african coast. It says there is a 60% chance or Tropical Cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. so it's a safe assumption that danielle won't be reaching the coastline here in the united states. what about the next one though? there are two reasons i am sweating that one. first reason is that i will be in florida[st pete area] labor day weekend, and hoping i don't miss some desirable surf. second reason is i am petrified of it hitting town while i am not around. when hurricane ernesto hit in 06 it knocked down trees, and crushed cars in my neighborhood. though i wasn't yet living here, but i did see the damage. ernesto was a category one also. isabel was a category 5 in 03, and didn't even leave a dent up here other than a lot of rain. i don't think isabel affected us as bad. so what's on tap for the next system? by the way i am ready to roll this weekend, and later in the week for the danielle swells.
    It is next to impossible to reliably forecast a tropical storm track and intensity when a storm is just forming off of the coast of Africa - forecasts of 3 to 5 days is state of the art and NOAA will be the first to state that it is a tough game.

    In addition to the Swell Info site, the Weather Underground provides a good collection of information:
    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
    I like the Interllicast.com satellite pics:
    http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hur...Satellite.aspx
    NOAA WW3 Models are fun:
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/main_table.html or
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/main_text.html.
    Operational WWW3 model:
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/index2.shtml.

  2. #32
    and.....i leave for college today. damn it.

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyav13 View Post
    and.....i leave for college today. damn it.
    I feel you man, where at?

  4. #34
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyav13 View Post
    and.....i leave for college today. damn it.
    And the crowds are starting to thin! 2 more weeks and it should be open ocean!

  5. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by rgnsup View Post
    And the crowds are starting to thin! 2 more weeks and it should be open ocean!
    i heard you there, some of these benny's need to leave sooner than later

  6. #36
    WW3 models show a shift further W and a possible hit to the NE. Getting interesting. Just updated in the past hour.

  7. #37
    Is there a specific longitude that a storm must break through to give south jerz considerable swell?

  8. #38
    Join Date
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    largely dependent on the strength, direction and speed (forward movement) of the storm. Hard to say. Latitude plays a role as well.
    The swell decay table below will give you a good idea of wave height based on the size of the sea and distance. I've never actually verified to see if this is accurate for the east coast.
    http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/papers/swell_decay.html
    Last edited by beaner; Aug 24, 2010 at 09:17 PM. Reason: added link

  9. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by rgnsup View Post
    And the crowds are starting to thin! 2 more weeks and it should be open ocean!
    you ride a pop tart...

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by NaturalMystic View Post
    Is there a specific longitude that a storm must break through to give south jerz considerable swell?
    this looks like considerable swell to me:
    http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-foreca...jersey-se.html