i always read those articles on weather.com. i am actually trying to find things about this new system down off the african coast. It says there is a 60% chance or Tropical Cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. so it's a safe assumption that danielle won't be reaching the coastline here in the united states. what about the next one though? there are two reasons i am sweating that one. first reason is that i will be in florida[st pete area] labor day weekend, and hoping i don't miss some desirable surf. second reason is i am petrified of it hitting town while i am not around. when hurricane ernesto hit in 06 it knocked down trees, and crushed cars in my neighborhood. though i wasn't yet living here, but i did see the damage. ernesto was a category one also. isabel was a category 5 in 03, and didn't even leave a dent up here other than a lot of rain. i don't think isabel affected us as bad. so what's on tap for the next system? by the way i am ready to roll this weekend, and later in the week for the danielle swells.
It is next to impossible to reliably forecast a tropical storm track and intensity when a storm is just forming off of the coast of Africa - forecasts of 3 to 5 days is state of the art and NOAA will be the first to state that it is a tough game.
largely dependent on the strength, direction and speed (forward movement) of the storm. Hard to say. Latitude plays a role as well.
The swell decay table below will give you a good idea of wave height based on the size of the sea and distance. I've never actually verified to see if this is accurate for the east coast. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/papers/swell_decay.html
Last edited by beaner; Aug 24, 2010 at 08:17 PM.
Reason: added link