The path that Florence is taking is very ideal for generating large swells for just about the entire east coast. Most spots are going to see long period ground swell arriving early on Sunday morning. Were talking 14-16sec periods...!
An important NOTE as far as the swellinfo predictions. I can pretty guarantee that the Swellinfo models are going to underestimate this swell, because at this point they can't handle the high resolution hurricane winds... This is something we will improve upon in the future...
Just a quick little summary here for what to expect for the initial ground swells on Sunday if the forecast track/intensity holds:
Areas from Florida up through Southern New England are going to rise quickly on Sunday, and should see long period swells approx: 4-5ft (bigger in some areas) @ 14-16secs.
This is a substantial swell and will hit overhead in many areas. This will build into Monday for most spots...
The models continue to struggle with the intensity forecast of Florence. She is still looking very disorganized today, but is still kicking out 40-50kt winds...
Florence will approach a lower shear environment over the next 2-3 days.... and the NHC is still calling for Florence to get to Cat 2 status as it nears Bermuda... But, if she's going to do this, she needs to get her act together pretty quick here.
The latest development is a small low is sitting off the carolinas. This is expected to be a non tropical or extratropical system.... however, its really going to influence our swell over the weekend and into next week. Instead of just getting solid G swell from Florence, we are going to see a mix of long period Florence swell and some strong NE wind swell as the non tropical low interacts with a high pressure to the Northwest.
So what does this mean:
well regardless of how strong Florence gets, she has already kicked out some swells in our direction. We are going to see these start rolling in on Sunday with some decent long period energy.
Most areas are looking at 3-4ft @ 12-14secs.... while areas like the Outer Banks and Southern NC are going to see more of a direct hit, approx 4-5ft @ 14 secs... These ground swells are going to build into Monday and look to hold solid into Tuesday, however they will be masked in many places by the strong NE wind swell - so plan accordingly...
(Note: as I mentioned earlier, the swellinfo models are likely to undercall the longer period tropical swells a bit, since they are currently unable to model the very high res tropical system winds. We are working on improving this as this moment).
There looks to be a lot of NE fetch developing, so shorter period NE wind swell will become longer and generate solid surf that will slowly diminish through the end of the week.
Plenty of surf - will the winds cooperate for your spots?
of course the winds won't cooperate. typical nj skunking. we'll get 3-4ft long period groundswell on sunday which translates into closeouts because not a damn beach in nj is in any shape to handle that long of a period. Jaded? you bet.
In the wise words of schlegel 'expect the worst and you won't be disappointed.'
Rumor has it though, that the sand is 'good' at lots o' spots. Was talk of other places being better than Jenks was on Sunday last...Hard to believe??? Nah...the shoals off of the inlet may have cut down some size but the refraction may have helped the shape..