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Thread: Is this a joke?

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  1. #1

    Is this a joke?

    Ive been watching the forecast for the last week for folly looking foreward to it firing today (saturday) only to wake up at six and check that the swell had almost completley died. I''m pretty new to this site so i was just wondering if someone could help me understand the accuracy of these forecasts.

  2. #2
    Never trust any forecast a week in advance, for all we know they make it look like its firing so that you go to the site more to check and they get paid for their advertisements. I find this site accurate most of the time the day before only, although this morning it was "supposed to be well overhead and wake up this morn and its only supposed to be chest to head...crazy how a prediction can be 4 feet off a day before.

  3. #3
    The margin for error is high for sure. But all the forecasters blew this one.. It should be fun mid morning, however wetsand, swellinfo, magicseaweed(not as far off), wavewatch, etc. were 3 ft or more off on this one. It was reading much better conditions til the the reports came flying out this morning and the downgraded it. Thanks for the site, however bad predictions. I could have traveled and prepared for this if I knew this was the case. Big Disappointment... Goes to show checking the surf is the only way.

  4. #4
    Where are you?

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Cherry Grove - NMB.
    Posts
    11

    Dude, wheres my wave?

    Wave's not here MAN

  6. #6
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Lewes, DE
    Posts
    5,377
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    121
    I just changed the forecast procedure for this swell as of this morning, which downgraded the forecast for a lot of the Southeast coast.

    There are some issues with the long period swells using the old approach, where it doesn't show the continental shelf influence and too much long period swell makes its way into the coast.

    We are working on a full upgrade to address this issue, but unfortunately it wont be in place for a little while...

  7. #7
    What is the old approach? There is no question that it is the longer period swell forecasting. The buoys are reading solid numbers, maybe not quite as big, but still solid. How would you adjust or lower the forecast knowing those numbers? I wouldn't even say its a forecast call if you adjust the morning of. I am sure taking into account the sea floor topography could make this very tricky as well as local knowledge for these swells.
    Last edited by bfloyd; Nov 13, 2010 at 12:12 PM.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by monkeytrapper View Post
    Where are you?
    isle of palms

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ryan stranahan View Post
    Ive been watching the forecast for the last week for folly looking foreward to it firing today (saturday) only to wake up at six and check that the swell had almost completley died. I''m pretty new to this site so i was just wondering if someone could help me understand the accuracy of these forecasts.
    Man if you have been watching this forecast (alone) for the last week, and expecting to drive down to your break and it be "firing" you need to have an epiphany into your surfing reality. This FREE surfing forecast is supposed to AID in your search for decent swell, not dominate it.

  10. #10
    North Florida or North Carolina are the only places that really get the big NE near here. It's generally the same wind blown drifty stuff. Ain't no website changin that...Go surf.