Over the past couple of weeks, there has been a subtle cry among east coast surfers, wondering when their beloved Fall hurricane season is going to kick in to full gear. The Fall season, and September in particular, is what east coast surfers come to cherish after enduring the bone chilling winters and the many flat days of summer, and so far the September surf has left little to be stoked about. All hope should not be lost for east coast surfers, as the latest predictions from Dr. Gray and the Colorado State hurricane forecast team calls for heightened activity for the rest of the tropical season.
The Colorado state forecast team expects the individual month of September and the two-month period of October-November to experience five named storms each. In September, the forecast calls for four of the five storms to become hurricanes and two to become major hurricanes. In October-November, the team forecasts two of the five named storms to become hurricanes and one to become a major hurricane.
"We expect the remainder of the season to be active," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the hurricane forecast. "The conditions in the Pacific are transitioning to a weak La Nina. We have seen low pressure readings in the tropical Atlantic during August. The combination of these two factors usually implies an active season."
"We predict that September-November will exhibit characteristics of an active year based on climate signals through August," said William Gray, who has been issuing hurricane forecasts at Colorado State for 24 years.
These conditions include Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures that have remained at near-normal values along with ENSO conditions that trended slightly cooler during August. Atlantic sea level pressure values were at near-record low levels during August.
Before the start of the June-through-November Atlantic season, Dr. Gray's team forecasted 17 named storms and nine hurricanes. The team revised that forecast slightly downward in August to 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. In the latest forecast, the team still expects 15 named storms but says only seven of them will be hurricanes.Note: This news has been adapted from a news release issued by Colorado State University.