East Coast surfers have had less than bountiful surf this Spring. Hope always lingers on the horizon, however, and especially the prospect of tropical swells as we approach June 1st, the official start of the 2010 Atlantic Tropical Season. Dr. Gray's team at the University of Colorado are predicting a higher than average quanitity of storms this year with 15 total named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (CAT 3 or higher).
Dr Gray's team is considered the leader in seasonal hurricane prediction, and have been forecasting tropical storm probabilities for 27 years. The latest prediction for the 2010 season, sites 2 main influences on the higher than average 2010 season. A weakening El Nino pattern, and higher anomalous sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic. To read the full publication by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, click here.
So, what does this mean for surfers along the Atlantic seaboard and Gulf of Mexico? Well, it is hard to say... A large quantity of storms does not necessarily mean the storms will take ideal swell generation path's or that favorable wind conditions will accompany the tropical swells. However, with more storms, the probability of good tropical swells certainly increases. So, while, you may be fearing that certain invasion of tourists ahead, or the undeniable accompanying small summer time swells, keep that hope alive for that next hurricane swell!
Only 21 Days to Go, so make sure to log in to the Swellinfo.com Hurricane Center for full hurricane season resources.