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Atlantic Tropical Outlook

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Tropical Outlook
 
018 
ABNT20 KNHC 250536
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Gaston, located about 1215 miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles northwest of
Puerto Rico is producing gale-force winds over water to the north
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.  However, satellite images
indicate that the shower activity remains disorganized, and the low
continues to lack a well-defined center.  Although upper-level winds
are only marginally conducive for development, this system could
still become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions have the potential to become more conducive
for development over the weekend when the system is near the central
or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rains are likely to
occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of
days, which could lead to possible flash floods and mudslides.
Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices
and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for
further details.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system later this morning.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.  Because of the large uncertainties
regarding this system's development and future track, it is too
early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven