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Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
January 2014 Atlantic Monthly Summary
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325 
ABNT30 KNHC 041803
TWSAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI APR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 
4N13W TO 2N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N18W TO THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 24W...TO 3S30W AND 5S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N TO 5S BETWEEN 24W AND 50W AT THE COAST 
OF BRAZIL. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED 
STATES IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH 
LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/COASTAL NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH 
OF 22N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUDS...KMZG AND 
A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE WITH FOG...KGBK...KCRH...KEIR AND A 
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES WITH FOG...KSPR...KMDJ...KATP IS REPORTING 
A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA. MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS 
WITH THUNDER COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COAST STATES FROM 
MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW 
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER BROOKSVILLE AND PARTS 
OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS 
FORT MYERS. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE 
NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N92W 26N97W. EXPECT 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER 
THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING 
HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N60W...TO 17N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...TO 12N77W. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT 
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N40W 21N50W AND 20N53W. A SHEAR 
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N53W TO 18N60W 17N70W AND TO EASTERN 
JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 83W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE 
PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 
KNHC...ARE 0.71 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.81 IN ST. 
THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 30N35W AND 
25N41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 25N41W 23N46W 18N56W 18N60W.
 
CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LOW 
CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. 
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS 
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START 
ALONG A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH WILL SPEND THE NEXT 48 HOURS MOVING 
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL 
COVER HISPANIOLA FOR 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB 
SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ALONG A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO AND 
HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOMING 
DIFFUSE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO A POSITION ALONG 20N60W-TO-THE PENINSULA DE 
LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AT 48 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER STARTS THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 
270 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA. 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN INVERTED 
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS OR 
SO. SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA 
AFTER THE INVERTED TROUGH DISAPPEARS.
 
...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE 
TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE AND AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANY THE SHEAR AXIS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... 
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE 
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA 
HEIGHTS 9 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. A 
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST 
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET 
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 29N75W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1024 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W...TO 27N61W AND TO 22N52W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 35N9W...TO 32N15W 24N25W 19N36W AND 19N49W.
 
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N37W TO 20N54W. EXPECT 
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 17 
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 52W. EXPECT 
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO 
THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 62W. EXPECT ALSO 
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 15 FEET TO 
THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT