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Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
November 2004 Atlantic Monthly Summary
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000
ABNT30 KNHC 012040
TWSAT 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EST WED DEC 1 2004
...CORRECTED SIXTEEN TO FIFTEEN BELOW...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
 
FIFTEEN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THE 2004 HURRICANE SEASON.  NINE OF THESE BECAME HURRICANES
...WITH SIX BECOMING MAJOR HURRICANES...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  THE STRONGEST HURRICANE WAS
IVAN...WHICH REACHED CATEGORY FIVE STATUS.  THERE WAS ONE
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

SIX HURRICANES...ALEX...CHARLEY...FRANCES...GASTON...IVAN...AND
JEANNE...STRUCK THE UNITED STATES IN 2004.  THREE TROPICAL STORMS
ALSO HIT THE UNITED STATES. CHARLEY ALSO HIT WESTERN CUBA...WHILE
FRANCES AND JEANNE ALSO HIT THE BAHAMAS...ALL AS MAJOR HURRICANES.
IVAN HIT GRENADA AND HAD SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON JAMAICA...GRAND
CAYMAN...AND WESTERN CUBA. JEANNE ALSO HIT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AS A HURRICANE AND PUERTO RICO AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE THAN
3000 DEATHS IN 2004.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE WERE IN HAITI DUE
TO RAINS FROM JEANNE.  UNADJUSTED PROPERTY DAMAGE IN THE U.S. IS
ESTIMATED AT MORE THAN 42 BILLION DOLLARS...MAKING 2004 THE
COSTLIEST HURRICANE SEASON ON RECORD.  CHARLEY IS THE SECOND
COSTLIEST U. S. HURRICANE ON RECORD...WHILE IVAN IS THE THIRD
COSTLIEST.

ALEX ORIGINATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND BECAME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON 31 JULY. IT DRIFTED
ERRATICALLY FOR 2 DAYS...BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON 1 AUGUST...AND
ON 2 AUGUST...BEGAN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST. ALEX BECAME A HURRICANE ON 3 AUGUST AND THE CENTER
PASSED WITHIN ABOUT 10 MILES OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA THAT
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100 MPH...THUS ALEX IS CONSIDERED
A HURRICANE STRIKE IN NORTH CAROLINA BUT DID NOT TECHNICALLY MAKE
LANDFALL. ALEX THEN ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC. ALEX REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 120
MPH...CATEGORY 3...ON 5 AUGUST AT IT WAS PASSING A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ALEX BECAME EXTRATROPICAL IN
THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC THE NEXT DAY. THE HURRICANE BROUGHT CATEGORY
1 CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND RIP
CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM RESULTED IN ONE DEATH OFF OF
NAGS HEAD NORTH CAROLINA. DAMAGE IS ESTIMATED TO BE LESS THAN $5
MILLION. 

BONNIE FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON 3 AUGUST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES THE NEXT DAY AND THEN DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL
WAVE. THE WAVE MOVED WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND
REDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON 9 AUGUST...JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BONNIE TURNED NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD ON 10 AND 11 AUGUST AND ITS WINDS REACHED 65 MPH.
THEREAFTER...BONNIE GRADUALLY WEAKENED BUT MOVED INLAND NEAR
APALACHICOLA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A TROPICAL STORM ON 12
AUGUST.  AS A DEPRESION...BONNIE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND FINALLY BECAME A REMNANT LOW JUST SOUTH
OF CAPE COD ON 14 AUGUST.  THERE WERE THREE DEATHS IN PENDER COUNTY
NORTH CAROLINA FROM A TORNADO SPAWNED BY BONNIE.

CHARLEY ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND BECAME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 9 AUGUST A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. 
IT MOVED QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED.  CHARLEY MOVED JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON 11
AUGUST SHORTLY AFTER IT BECAME A HURRICANE...AND IT PASSED JUST
NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN THE NEXT DAY.  THE HURRICANE TURNED TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND ITS EYE PASSED JUST EAST OF THE ISLE OF
YOUTH EARLY ON 13 AUGUST.  THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL NEAR PLAYA
DEL CAJIO WITH CATEGORY 3 WINDS OF 120 MPH AND THEN CROSSED WESTERN
CUBA.  CHARLEY WEAKENED SOME OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
TURNING NORTHWARD...THE HURRICANE PASSED OVER THE DRY TORTUGAS AS A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE.  CHARLEY THEN TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA...INTENSIFYING
RAPIDLY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  CHARLEY MADE LANDFALL ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CAYO COSTA...JUST NORTH OF CAPTIVA
DURING THE EVENING OF 13 AUGUST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 150 MPH...CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.  SHORTLY THEREAFTER THE EYEWALL
IMPACTED PUNTA GORDA AND NEIGHBORING PORT CHARLOTTE WITH
DEVASTATING RESULTS.  THE HURRICANE TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A SWATH OF DESTRUCTION ACROSS THE STATE. 
THE CENTER PASSED NEAR KISSIMMEE AND ORLANDO EARLY ON 14
AUGUST...BY WHICH TIME THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD DECREASED TO
AROUND 85 MPH.  CHARLEY WAS STILL OF HURRICANE INTENSITY WHEN THE
CENTER RE-EMERGED OVER WATER NEAR DAYTONA BEACH.

AFTER MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC...CHARLEY CAME ASHORE AGAIN NEAR CAPE
ROMAIN SOUTH CAROLINA MIDDAY ON 14 AUGUST WITH HIGHEST WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 MPH.  THE CENTER THEN MOVED JUST OFFSHORE AND MADE ANOTHER
LANDFALL AT NORTH MYRTLE BEACH WITH WINDS NEAR 75 MPH.  CHARLEY
SOON WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
ON 15 AUGUST CHARLEY BECAME EXTRATROPICAL OVER VIRGINIA WHILE
EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE.  CHARLEY'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS MOVED
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...AND WERE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

CHARLEY WAS DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR 10 DEATHS IN THE UNITED
STATES...9 IN FLORIDA AND 1 IN RHODE ISLAND.  THERE WERE ALSO 4
DIRECT DEATHS IN CUBA AND 1 IN JAMAICA.  AN ADDITIONAL 20 U.S.
DEATHS ARE INDIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO CHARLEY.   THE PROPERTY
CLAIMS SERVICE REPORTS INSURED DAMAGES OF 6.755 BILLION DOLLARS IN
FLORIDA...25 MILLION DOLLARS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND 20 MILLION
DOLLARS IN SOUTH CAROLINA...FOR A TOTAL OF 6.8 BILLION DOLLARS IN
INSURED LOSSES.  THE INSURANCE INFORMATION INSTITUTE REPORTS AN
ESTIMATED TOTAL OF 7.4 BILLION DOLLARS IN INSURED LOSSES.  A ROUGH
ESTIMATE OF THE TOTAL DAMAGE IS 14 BILLION DOLLARS.  THIS MAKES
CHARLEY THE SECOND COSTLIEST TROPICAL CYCLONE IN U.S.
HISTORY...BEHIND ONLY HURRICANE ANDREW OF 1992.

DANIELLE DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE INTO A DEPRESSION ABOUT 240
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON 13 AUGUST. IT
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY.  DANIELLE MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND BECAME A HURRICANE THE FOLLOWING DAY.  IT
SPENT THE REST OF ITS EXISTENCE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 MPH...BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON 21 AUGUST ABOUT 855 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES.

EARL WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM THAT FORMED FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE ON 13 AUGUST OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT
MOVED QUICKLY WESTWARD...BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON 14 AUGUST...AND
THEN CROSSED THE CARIBBEAN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON 15 AUGUST WITH BRIEF
BUT HEAVY RAINS AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. EARL DEGENERATED TO AN OPEN
TROPICAL WAVE LATER THAT DAY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FRANCES FORMED FROM A AFRICAN WAVE AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY ON 25 AUGUST. 
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD...THE DEPRESSION BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY...A HURRICANE ON 26 AUGUST...AND A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON 27 AUGUST OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. 
FRANCES TURNED WESTWARD ON 30 AUGUST.  FRANCES PASSED ABOUT 125
MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON 31 AUGUST...THEN IT TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON 1 SEPTEMBER.  THIS BROUGHT THE HURRICANE NEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON 2
SEPTEMBER.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REACHED 145 MPH ON 31 AUGUST
AND 2 SEPTEMBER...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE.  FRANCES TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE AS IT PASSED OVER SAN SALVADOR ISLAND LATER ON 2
SEPTEMBER.  IT MOVED SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON 3-4 SEPTEMBER WHILE WEAKENING TO A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE.  THE CENTER OF FRANCES REACHED THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND EARLY ON 5
SEPTEMBER...THEN MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY ON 6
SEPTEMBER.  FRANCES WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER FLORIDA...AND
IT WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MADE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR THE MOUTH OF AUCILLA RIVER ON 6 SEPTEMBER. 
FRANCES MOVED GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER WEST VIRGINA ON 9 SEPTEMBER
AND DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THE NEXT DAY.  FRANCES IS
DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR 7 DEATHS...6 IN THE U.S. AND ONE IN THE
BAHAMAS.  IT LEFT A BROAD TRAIL OF DAMAGE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

GASTON DEVELOPED SLOWLY FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 27
AUGUST ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
DRIFTING ERRATICALY...THE DEPRESSION BECAME A TROPICAL STORM THE
NEXT DAY AND CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST. GASTON REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE MORNING OF 29 AUGUST BETWEEN CHARLESTON AND
MCCLELLANVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 75 MPH.
GASTON WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE IN THE DAY. GASTON MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND ACROSS THE THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA ON 30 AUGUST...AND LATE IN THE DAY RESTRENGTHENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED BACK OVER WATER.  GASTON ACCELERATED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND BECAME EXTRATROPICAL ON ON 1 SEPTEMBER SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. GASTON PRODUCED WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...AND VIRGINIA...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES IN THE RICHMOND AREA. FLASH
FLOODS IN RICHMOND KILLED 8 PEOPLE. TOTAL U.S. DAMAGE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR $130 MILLION.

HERMINE FORMED ON A FRONTAL ZONE ON 27 AUGUST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. IT MOVED WEST-NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 MPH ON 30 AUGUST. THEREAFTER...HERMINE
WEAKENED AND REACHED THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS NEAR NEW
BEDFORD AS A 40 MPH TROPICAL STORM ON 31 AUGUST. IT CONTINUED
NORTHWARD AND BECAME EXTRATROPICAL LATER ON THAT DAY.

IVAN WAS A CLASSIC LONG-LIVED CAPE VERDE HURRICANE THAT MADE TWO
LANDFALLS ALONG THE U.S. COAST AND REACHED CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH
THREE TIMES. IVAN DEVELOPED FROM A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ON 31 AUGUST. THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY STRENGTHENED AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 2
SEPTEMBER...A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT DAY...A HURRICANE EARLY ON 5
SEPTEMBER...AND A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY. IVAN MOVED
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PASSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE IT CAUSED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE AND LOSS OF
LIFE...GRENADA BEING PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. IVAN THEN MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING JUST
NORTH OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. IVAN REACHED
CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY ON 9
SEPTEMBER...BUT WEAKENED BACK TO CATEGORY 4 BEFORE PASSING JUST
SOUTH OF JAMAICA ON 11 SEPTEMBER AND JUST SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN THE
NEXT DAY. IVAN MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ITS
STRENGTH OSCILLATING BETWEEN CATEGORIES 4 AND 5...AND PASSED
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON 14 SEPTEMBER. 

FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IVAN MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY WEAKENED UNTIL IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR GULF
SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE EARLY ON 16 SEPTEMBER.
AFTER LANDFALL...IVAN GRADUALLY WEAKENED...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EMERGING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
ON 19 SEPTEMBER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. A PORTION OF THIS
CIRCULATION THEN MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND PASSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
21 SEPTEMBER. THIS REMNANT OF IVAN BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON
23 SEPTEMBER AND THE BORN-AGAIN STORM MADE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA ON 24 SEPTEMBER. IVAN FINALLY
DISSIPATED INLAND OVER EAST TEXAS LATER THAT DAY.


IVAN IS DIRECTLY BLAMED FOR 95 DEATHS...INCLUDING 39 IN GRENADA AND
26 IN THE UNITED STATES.  DAMAGE IN THE UNITED STATES IS ESTIMATED
TO BE $13 BILLION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CROSSED THE COAST OF AFRICA
ON 29 AUGUST.  THE WEATHER AREA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.  ON 7 SEPTEMBER...THE DISTURBED AREA FORMED INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT 725 SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST AZORES. 
THE CYCLONE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND DID
NOT STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY.  ON 9 SEPTEMBER...THE MOTION BECAME
SLOW AND ERRATIC WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REDUCED THE SYSTEM TO A
REMNANT LOW.  THE CYCLONE TURNED SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING
LATER THAT DAY...ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

JEANNE ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND BECAME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 13 SEPTEMBER WHILE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. JEANNE MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON 14 SEPTEMBER WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. IT MOVED SLOWLY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THE NEXT DAY AND THEN SLOWLY OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON 16 AND 17 SEPTEMBER...ACCOMPANIED
BY TORRENTIAL RAINS AND WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. JEANNE
BRIEFLY WAS A HURRICANE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BUT THEN WEAKENED
WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. JEANNE
TURNED NORTHWARD ON 18 SEPTEMBER AND MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM. JEANNE DRIFTED NORTHWARD AND
STRENGTHENED... BECOMING A HURRICANE ON 20 SEPTEMBER WHILE LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. THE HURRICANE
MOVED ALONG A SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND STRENGTHENED
TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. THE LOOP WAS COMPLETED BY 23 SEPTEMBER
AND JEANNE BEGAN A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD. ON 25
SEPTEMBER...JEANNE DIRECTLY HIT ABACOS ISLAND AND THEN GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. EARLY ON 26 SEPTEMBER...JEANNE MADE
LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR STUART AS A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE. IT IS NOTABLE THAT HURRICANE FRANCES MADE LANDFALL
AT THIS SAME LOCATION JUST 3 WEEKS EARLIER AND ALSO MOVED OVER THE
SAME ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. 

JEANNE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD. JEANNE WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION
OVER GEORGIA ON 27 SEPTEMBER.  STILL ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THE DEPRESSION MOVED OVER THE CAROLINAS...VIRGINIA AND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. IT MERGED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECAME
EXTRATROPICAL ON 29 SEPTEMBER WHILE MOVING EASTWARD OFF OF THE U.S.
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. 

THE DEATH TOTALS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI MAY NEVER BE
KNOWN PRECISELY.  AT LEAST 3000 DEATHS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
OCCURRED IN HAITI FROM INLAND FLOODING.  ONE DIRECT DEATH WAS
REPORTED IN PUERTO RICO...TWO IN FLORIDA...ONE IN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ONE IN VIRGINIA...FOR A TOTAL OF FIVE DIRECT U.S. DEATHS. THE
U.S. DAMAGE ESTIMATE IS $6.5 BILLION.

KARL DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...BECOMING A DEPRESSION ABOUT
410 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON 16
SEPTEMBER. INITIALLY MOVING WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE TURNED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BECAME TROPICAL STORM KARL ON 17
SEPTEMBER. KARL THEN MOVED GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD ON 18-20 SEPTEMBER...BECOMING A HURRICANE ON 18
SEPTEMBER AND A MAJOR HURRICANE THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTIANED
WINDS REACHED AN ESTIMATED 145 MPH ON 21 SEPTEMBER AS KARL TURNED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. KARL TURNED NORTHWARD ON 22 SEPTEMBER AND
NORTHEASTWARD THE NEXT DAY WHILE SHOWING FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH.
IT THEN TURNED NORTHWARD AND LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT
755 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AZORES EARLY ON 25 SEPTEMBER.

LISA DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...BECOMING A DEPRESSION ON 19
SEPTEMBER ABOUT 520 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 
THE DEPRESSION BECAME A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT DAY.  LISA MOVED
WESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN INTERACTED WITH ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LISA FROM THE EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE AND LISA LOOPED ABOUT EACH OTHER ON 22 AND 23 SEPTEMBER
UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE WAS ABSORBED INTO LISA'S CIRCULATION. LISA
THEN CONTINUED WESTWARD ON 24 SEPTEMBER BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ITS STRENGTH OSCILLATING...LISA MOVED SLOWLY
NORTHWARD FOR NEARLY A WEEK BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN 1 OCTOBER. LISA STRENGTHENED...BRIEFLY
MAINTAINING MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY ON 2 OCTOBER BEFORE
WEAKENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM THAT AFTERNOON DUE TO VERY COLD
WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. LISA BECAME EXTRATROPICAL
EARLY ON 3 OCTOBER ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND WAS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHORTLY THEREAFTER. 

MATTHEW FORMED ON 8 OCTOBER ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS...FROM THE INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.  THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THAT DAY AND REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 MPH ON 9 OCTOBER. 
THE CYCLONE MOVED EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... BUT THEN GRADUALLY
TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AND MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF
COCODRIE EARLY ON THE 10TH WITH 40 MPH WINDS.  MATTHEW WEAKENED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AFTER MOVING INLAND AND THEN WAS
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON 11 OCTOBER.  IN TERREBONE PARISH...
ABOUT 20 HOMES WERE FLOODED BY THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND STORM
SURGE. 

NICOLE WAS A SHORT-LIVED SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE THAT DEVELOPED FROM AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS.  THE LOW
MEANDERED NEAR BERMUDA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE ACQUIRING
ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE DECLARED A SUBTROPICAL STORM
EARLY ON 10 OCTOBER ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY OCCURRED AS NICOLE MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD...PASSING ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA
LATE ON 10 OCTOBER.  BY EARLY ON 11 OCTOBER...NICOLE CAME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD.  THE SUBTROPICAL STORM WAS ABSORBED
LATER THAT DAY BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHILE LOCATED ABOUT
400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

OTTO FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON 30
NOVEMBER...THE LAST DAY OF THE NOMINAL HURRICANE SEASON...ABOUT 800
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.  CURRENTLY OTTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH WINDS
OF 45-50 MPH...AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING.

SUMMARY TABLE - 2004

NAME          DATES          MAX WIND  DEATHS   U.S. DAMAGE
                               (MPH)            ($MILLIONS)
-------------------------------------------------------------
H  ALEX       31 JUL - 6 AUG   120        1          5
TS BONNIE     3-12 AUG          65
H  CHARLEY    9-14 AUG         150       15     14,000
H  DANIELLE   13-21 AUG        105
TS EARL       13-15 AUG         50
H  FRANCES    25 AUG - 8 SEP   145        7      8,860
H  GASTON     27 AUG - 1 SEP    75        8        130
TS HERMINE    29-31 AUG         40
H  IVAN       2 -24 SEP        165       95     13,000
TD TEN        7 - 9 SEP         35
H  JEANNE     13-29 SEP        120    3000+      6,500
H  KARL       16-24 SEP        145
H  LISA       19 SEP - 3 OCT    75                 
TS MATTHEW    8-10 OCT          45                 N/A
STS NICOLE    10-11 OCT         50
TS OTTO       30 NOV -          50
-------------------------------------------------------------
N/A = NOT AVAILABLE

FORECASTER AVILA/BEVEN/FRANKLIN/LAWRENCE/PASCH/STEWART

$$