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Hurricane Tracking Center

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
July 2006 Eastern Pacific Monthly Summary
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000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011504
TWSEP 
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 1 2006
 
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
 
AFTER A QUIET JUNE WHEN NO STORMS FORMED DURING THE MONTH...THE
SECOND HALF OF JULY WAS QUITE ACTIVE WITH 4 NAMED STORMS...
INCLUDING TWO MAJOR HURRICANES HAVING DEVELOPED...HURRICANE
BUD...HURRICANE CARLOTTA...HURRICANE DANIEL...AND TROPICAL
STORM EMILIA.  IN ADDITION THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT IS NOW FABIO
FORMED AT THE END OF THE MONTH.

BUD DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA ON 27 JUNE AND REACHED THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY 7 JULY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED ALONG THE WAVE ON 9 JULY APPROXIMATELY
600 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND ON 10 JULY 10 A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED
APPROXIMATELY 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. INITIALLY...THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERED NORTHERLY SHEAR
WHICH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR BEGAN TO
DECREASE THE FOLLOWING DAY...AND THE CYCLONE BEGAN TO DEVELOP
RAPIDLY...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH THAT EVENING. THE
INTENSIFICATION CONTINUED ON 12 JULY...WITH BUD REACHING ITS
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 110 KT EARLY ON 13 JULY.
THEREAFTER...BUD BEGAN ENCOUNTERING INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND
STABLE AIR WHICH INITIATED WEAKENING. BUD CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND
DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY ON 14 JULY. BUD LOST MOST OF
ITS DEEP CONVECTION LATER THAT DAY AND DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE AREA.

CARLOTTA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERED THE EAST PACIFIC
BASIN ON 9 JULY.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FORMED EARLY ON 12 JULY ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.  MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE DEPRESSION
QUICKLY REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY...BECOMING A HURRICANE THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KT.  ON 14 JULY...CARLOTTA WEAKENED BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM AS ITS CIRCULATION BEGAN TO SPREAD OVER COOLER
WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE
REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH THE FOLLOWING DAY.  BY LATE ON 15
JULY...HOWEVER...CARLOTTA BEGAN A SECOND AND FINAL WEAKENING TREND
OVER COOLER WATERS.  BY 16 JULY...CARLOTTA HAD WEAKENED TO A
DEPRESSION ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CYCLONE DEGENERATED TO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW EARLY ON 17 JULY.  

DANIEL DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED WESTWARD FROM THE
COAST OF AFRICA ON 30 JUNE.  THE WAVE REACHED THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ON 12 JULY AND SHOWED SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION STARTING ON 15 JULY.  A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED FROM THE SYSTEM ON 17 JULY ABOUT 630 N
MI S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE MOVED WESTWARD IN
DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY
AND A HURRICANE ON 18 JULY.  DANIEL TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON 20
JULY AS IT BECAME THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON.  IT
REACHED AN ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KT...CATEGORY 4 ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...ON 22 JULY ABOUT 1200 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  DANIEL TURNED WESTWARD ON 22
JULY...THEN RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE NEXT DAY.  THIS
MOTION BROUGHT DANIEL OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH
RESULTED IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE
HURRICANE CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON 24 JULY WITH
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 KT.

EMILIA FORMED EARLY IN 21 JULY ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY STRENGTHENED AND BECAME TROPICAL
STORM EMILIA THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. EMILIA WOBBLED BACK AND FORTH ABOUT A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND STEADILY STRENGTHENED TO 60 KT
ON 23 JULY. AFTER PEAKING...EMILIA ENCOUNTERED UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR CONDITIONS THE NEXT DAY... WHICH CAUSED THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN
TO 45 KT BY 25 JULY. HOWEVER...BEFORE EMILIA REACHED COLDER WATER
AND BEGAN ITS FINAL WEAKENING TREND...THE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EMILIA QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFIED TO 60 KT AGAIN THE
NEXT DAY. EMILIA BRUSHED PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA CAUSING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN MANY AREAS. AFTER REACHING COLDER WATER LATE ON 26
JULY...EMILIA BEGAN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND IT BECAME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EARLY ON 27 JULY.  THE SYSTEM TURNED WESTWARD AND
DEGENERATED INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA THE NEXT DAY
ABOUT 290 MILES WEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REMNANT
LOW CONTINUED SLOWLY WESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME            DATES            MAX WIND (KT)           DEATHS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
H  BUD         11-16 JUL             110                    0
H  CARLOTTA    12-17 JUL              75                    0
H  DANIEL      17-26 JUL             130                    0
TS EMILIA      21-28 JUL              60                    0
TS FABIO       31 JUL -               45 (AS OF 1 AUG)      0
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NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
 
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FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN/FRANKLIN/RHOME