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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
043 
AXNT20 KNHC 301728
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N45W IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE 
LOW LIES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE 
SYSTEM LACKS ANY ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 43W-48W. 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N27W TO 10N27W AND IS MOVING W  
15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE 
WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION 
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF 
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 30W FROM 09N-12N. 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 10N49W AND IS MOVING W 15-
20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE 1012 MB SURFACE LOW 
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE WAVE REMAINS 
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE 
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 
08N35W TO 09N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENGE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 07N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N24W TO 
07N35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE 
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO 26N90W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MODERATE WINDS EITHER SIDE OF 
THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO 27N89W AND 
CONTINUES NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 90-120 NM 
S OF THE FRONT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR N OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N92.5W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED 
OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                         
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N 
OF 15N W OF 78W. A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ALONG THE COSTA RICA 
COAST. FAIR WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                            
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO CONFLUENCE ALOFT COVERS THE 
ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSTMS ARE FORECAST LATER 
IN THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 72W DUE TO A 
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. 
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 8-9 DEGREES IN 
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE SLOWLY S OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED NEAR 29N47W AND IS 
DRIFTING S. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED 
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 20N E OF 50W INTO AFRICA. AT THE 
SURFACE A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
36N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB