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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
197 
AXNT20 KNHC 242325
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N18W TO 5N21W WHERE THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 
35W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN 
NEAR 3N TO 1N9W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 1N44W TO 2N49W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS BUT IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT OVER TEXAS ARE MOVING OVER THE FAR NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 
93W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 80W FROM CUBA OVER THE W ATLC IS 
GIVING THE GULF W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS 
THE GULF ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH AT 24/2100 UTC NEAR 
29N87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE  
W TROPICAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC 
TO OVER HISPANIOLA AT 24/2100 UTC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE 
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER E CUBA E OF 79W. THE TRADE 
WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 
10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-82W. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY 
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC AND THE CENTRAL PORTION OF HAITI BEING GENERATED BY A 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 20N67W 
TO 19N72W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING 
HISPANIOLA WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY 
FROM THE ISLAND AND DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND MAINLY THROUGH 
LATE SAT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 80W FROM CUBA TO BEYOND 32N. A 
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 24/2100 UTC 
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W ALONG 28N61W TO 26N67W THEN DISSIPATES TO 
26N71W. A REMNANT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 
32N52W TO 27N53W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 22N61W 
20N67W TO OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN/W 
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E OF THE SURFACE ALONG 20N46W 
TO BEYOND 32N38W ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH 
N OF 22N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E 
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATE SAT. A NEARLY 
STATIONARY TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE W ATLC FRI AND MOVE INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE W 
ATLC N OF 29N SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW