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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
109 
AXNT20 KNHC 010542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TONIGHT W OF A COLD 
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. 
SEAS BETWEEN 13 AND 20 FT IN NW TO N SWELL CAN BE EXPECTED 
OVERNIGHT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO 
THIS EVENING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY 
MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD 
OF A COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE SE US COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 
10 TO 13 FT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE 
TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 TO 16 FT. WINDS WILL 
DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE BACK TO GALE-FORCE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN DECREASE 
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION. 

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP 
TONIGHT W OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE GULF. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 8 FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO 
THE S GULF DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
1N30W TO 0N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM N 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 13W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER 
THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW OVER SW TX 
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W FROM THE LOW ACROSS TX THAT 
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT ENTERING THE GULF NEAR 29N96W THEN 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO 24N86W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS BACK TO A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT W OF 
93W TO THE TX COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE 
FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 
20 KT COVER THE GULF. THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE STATIONARY 
FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT WITH THE ENTIRE WARM FRONT 
MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW 
GULF TONIGHT WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. 
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO DEEP 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE 
OVER S AMERICA IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 
KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE-
FORCE N OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND 
FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 
09N TO 20N W OF 80W...AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO 
AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THESE ISLANDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. A 
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS 
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ENHANCED 
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN MONDAY. 

HISPANIOLA... 

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A COLD 
FRONT TO THE N OF THE ISLAND IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY 
NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE 
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS BOTH HAITI AND THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TONIGHT.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 23N73W WHERE 
IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE FL 
STRAITS NEAR 23N81W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE 
COLD FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM S AND E OF 
THE FRONTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO 22N58W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N35W IS INTERACTING 
WITH AN UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. A COLD FRONT 
WILL APPROACH THE SE US OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GALE-FORCE 
WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF N 
FL. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO