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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
765 
AXNT20 KNHC 310549
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO 20N43W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-48W AND 
LIES TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009 
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N30W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.
                              
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 20N73W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 68W-
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-
76W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W.
         
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
19N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N30W TO 08N47W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 
18W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 
26W-34W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 35W-45W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                       
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON 
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE THE RIDGING 
IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE PROVIDING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS 
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OVER THE 
DELMARVA REGION SW TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 
CENTRAL CAROLINAS SW TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THEN 
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH TEXAS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT 
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-95W...WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E OF 
93W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB 
HIGH CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W. THE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 
24N80W. THE WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND FRONTAL TROUGHING IS 
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH 
SUNDAY NIGHT LATE AS IT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN 
BY MONDAY. SURFACING RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF 
ACROSS THE GULF BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING 
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS 
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA 
NEAR 23N73W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE 
EXTENDING ALONG 74W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND 
CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EXTENDS FARTHER 
EAST...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING E OF 70W. 
FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINS FRESH TO 
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-79W. AS 
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH RE-ESTABLISHES HOLD ACROSS THE SW 
NORTH ATLC DURING THE WEEKEND...THESE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO 
GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...                               
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWINDS TO THE 
EAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS 
THE ISLAND FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC 
BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE SE AND 
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 
PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 26N W OF 75W AND THIS ENERGY 
SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N77W AND ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W REMAINS FAIRLY 
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N58W. FINALLY...THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 
33N36W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN