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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
947 
AXNT20 KNHC 291149
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 
5N19W 4N18W 4N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N25W TO 4N33W AND TO 
1N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W...AND FROM 13N 
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 27N35W 19N46W 13N49W 6N50W. 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND 
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 
THE 32N34W 6N50W TROUGH.
 
...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHALLOW AND SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...TO 27N90W IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...CURVING TO 25N92W...19N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND 21N100W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 85W WESTWARD IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A DEEP SOUTH TEXAS 1023 
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 20N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KBQX... 
KXIH...KHHV...KVBS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KCRH...KGBK... 
KVQT...KGHB...KGRY AND A VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG... 
KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS AND 
KDLP. ICAO STATION KEHC IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES AND 
FOG.
 
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

CLEAR SKIES COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE CORPUS 
CHRISTI AREA TO PALACIOS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE 
COMMON IN TEXAS FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF PALACIOS TO THE 
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND INCLUDING SMALLER NEARBY 
COMMUNITIES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE 
COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO PERRY FLORIDA. 
VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND RAIN ARE INCLUDED IN 
THE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER FLORIDA 
FROM BROOKSVILLE TO PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG 
METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED 
IN PUNTA GORDA. LIGHT RAIN AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE 
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 17N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...JUST OFF THE COAST OF 
JAMAICA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N63W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND 
IN THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER THAT IS 
NEAR 14N87W. 

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N FROM 83W EASTWARD... 
FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N85W IN NICARAGUA TO 15N87W IN HONDURAS 
TO 20N88W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL 
TRADEWIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE 
PERIOD ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.22 IN SAN JUAN IN 
PUERTO RICO...0.11 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.02 IN ST. 
THOMAS...AND 0.02 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN 
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS FROM TRADEWIND 
FLOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD.
 
...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 
19N60W...TO 19N70W NEAR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. 
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD 
CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. LIGHT 
RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN 
PUERTO PLATA.  

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH 
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM A COSTA RICA/PANAMA ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE GFS 
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER WILL START NEAR 25N76W NEAR THE BAHAMAS. NORTHEAST WIND 
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO. THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH 
TIME. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 
NEXT 18 HOURS. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL END WITH EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N69W...ABOUT 120 NM TO 
THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB 
SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. 
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE 
EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL 
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 
27N35W 19N46W 13N49W 6N50W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N34W 6N50W TROUGH. A COLD 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 25N35W 20N45W 18N50W AND 19N60W. 
THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 19N60W TO 19N70W NEAR THE 
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
13N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W 26N30W 21N38W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVER THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N34W-TO-19N46W-TO-6N50W 
TROUGH.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N36W TO 
29N46W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
30N63W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 
23N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE 
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER THAT IS NEAR 14N87W. 

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ON TOP OF THE 
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N21W...TO 
20N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT