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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
509 
AXNT20 KNHC 100559
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING NEAR 
13N51W TO 5N52W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT 
IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 50W-
59W.
         
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 20N59W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DRY AIR 
FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT 
WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE 
CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
12N16W TO 9N20W TO 7N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N38W TO THE SOUTH 
AMERICAN COAST NEAR 4N51W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 21W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE 
GULF THUS SUSTAINING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE 
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH 
OVER FORT MYERS COASTAL WATERS WHICH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW 
OF 5-15 KT ACROSS ALL THE GULF QUADRANTS BUT THE NE. EXCEPT FOR 
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEEP 
LAYER MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN. A MID-LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED IN THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO AS 
WELL AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORT 
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-27N W OF 94W. SURFACE 
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH 
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI MORNING BEING SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE 
MID-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE 
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS 
SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE TO 83W WITH NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXCEPT FOR THE NW AND 
NE CARIBBEAN...THE REMAINDER BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER 
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME. A TROPICAL 
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL 
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A 
TROUGH TO THE SW BASIN AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
OVER WESTERN HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A NEW 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW HAITI AND EASTERN 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT 
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW TO EASTERN CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDS TO 
ADJACENT SW N ATLC WATERS WHERE ALONG DEEP LAYER MODERATE 
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 76W. 
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE 
AZORES HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLC 
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN 
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. BESIDES A SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE SW N 
ATLC...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR