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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
605 
AXNT20 KNHC 012321
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...    

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
13N42W TO 3N43W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE 
WITH NO MOISTURE N OF 15N. THE GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND DUST N OF 15N. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED  MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 45W-
53W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM  
19N56W TO 10N60W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
6N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N30W TO 6N42W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W 
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE 
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N 
BETWEEN 17W-24W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...                                              

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S 
FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 
28N82W. A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SE 
COAST OF LOUISIANA AT 29N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 88N-90W. 
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA 
W OF 78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OFF THE 
COAST OF LOUISIANA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR HIGH 
PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS. ALSO 
EXPECT RESIDUAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE NE GULF AND THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...           

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. 
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER NW 
VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA 
TO S MEXICO. MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 
HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N59W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED 
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. 
                                 
...HISPANIOLA...                                         

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. A SMALL AREA 
OF EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WESTERN 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N72W. EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS SHOWERS THU WITH CONVECTION 
REACHING THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.
  
ATLANTIC OCEAN...          

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W 
TO 27N70W TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N 
BAHAMAS. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 29N41W. A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
31N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N25W TO 
25N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF 
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 26N W OF 65W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. A SERIES 
OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IS ALSO CENTERED AT 32N55W...31N39W...AND AT 
31N26W. EACH UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS E 
OF THEIR CENTERS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA