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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
462 
AXNT20 KNHC 240546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA 
NEAR 11N15W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 8N27W 
7N35W AND 3N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG 
FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD 
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL 
SECTIONS TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH PASSES 
THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD.  
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT 
RUNS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 23N87W...IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
KEYS AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND IN 
TEXAS...FROM NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL 
TEXAS...AND THEN ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST LINE THROUGH THE FAR-WEST 
OF TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS... 
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO 
NEAR 23N99W.
 
FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGUL...
KGBK...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...
KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE 
BEING REPORTED AT NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD 
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... 
FROM NEW IBERIA EASTWARD...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. 
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM COASTAL 
SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...TO ALABAMA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
NEAR PERRY. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PANAMA CITY AND IN 
MARIANNA...FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT PETERSBURG 
METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL 
AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.
 
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W. 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE 
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT GOES FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 
50W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA 
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN 
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING 
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
ALONG 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND 
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
17N86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO 
PLATA. 
 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST  
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT 
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP 
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE 
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N75W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W IN 
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N40W AND 17N41W. THE TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 31N37W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N37W TO 27N50W 26N60W AND 
27N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES 27N69W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 
32N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING 
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 31N TO 34N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 
52W. 
 
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 
13N TO THE 32N34W 31N37W 27N69W 32N73W FRONTAL BOUNDARY... 
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT