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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
690 
AXNT20 KNHC 031014
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W UNTIL 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. 
THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 18N33W TO 09N33W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 
24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE S OF 13N. 
ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES SAHARAN DUST INTRUSION N OF 
13N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W 
AND 36W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IN THE 
VICINITY OF A LOW THAT HAD BEEN ANALYZED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND 
EXTENDS FROM 20N42W TO 11N44W...MOVING W AT AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS 
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 39W AND 45W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 
46W. 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N71W TO 12N71W...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY DRY 
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE N OF 16N 
ALONG THE WAVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB 
TROUGH BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. 
    
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N16W TO 12N31W...THEN RESUMES W OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N35W TO 11N50W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 10N59W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 
12N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...  
                                             
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W 
WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS E ACROSS N FL. THIS IS PROVIDING A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
BASIN. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N83W ALONG THE BIG BEND 
OF FL WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 
26N88W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE WITH THE 
LOW AND TROUGH...AND THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS 
ALOFT SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. A MOIST AIRMASS EXTENDS WEST 
FROM THE LOW TO THE TX COAST...AND ALSO S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE 
GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS 
THE N GULF N OF 27N W OF 85W...AND E OF 89W S OF 26N. A WEAK 
1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N83W SUPPORTING GENTLE 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE S GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SW 
TO W WINDS COVER THE N GULF. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TODAY AND THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
                                               
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 22N77W WITH CYCLONIC 
FLOW ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE INTERACTION OF A 
MOIST AIRMASS WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. A TROPICAL WAVE 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CONVECTION N OF 17N. 
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A 
PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION WILL BECOME ENHANCED 
ON TUESDAY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AIRMASS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                          
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER 
HAITI AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W ACROSS 
THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ISLAND. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
                                              
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 22N77W AND IS 
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 26N67W TO 22N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
FARTHER EAST...A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N55W DOMINATES THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. TWO 
TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
EXPECT CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N FL COAST 
INCLUDING NEARBY OFFSHORE WATERS...AND ALSO NEAR THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE W ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

LATTO