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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
242 
AXNT20 KNHC 271742
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 28.4N 53.2W at 27/1500
UTC or about 643 nm east-southeast of Bermuda, moving north-west
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 26N-31N between 50W-56W.
Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends from
17N25W to 09N28W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is embedded
within an area of slight moisture. No significant convection is
noted.

Tropical wave in the western Caribbean south of Cuba extends
from 21N76W to 17N84W to 11N84W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The
wave is well defined at the surface and at 700 mb, and is
embedded within an area of deep moisture. Isolated moderate
convection is over the W Caribbean within 180 nm of the wave
axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W to 10N30W to 05N40W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to the coast of South America near 04N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the
monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is north of the
ITCZ from 05N-10N between 45W-54W. Scattered moderate
convection is also near Trinidad from 09N-11N between 56W-62W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the W Gulf from 29N93W to 21N93W.
Isolated moderate convection S Louisiana, E Texas, and the NW
Gulf, N of 28N between 90W-96W. Elsewhere, clusters of
scattered moderate convection are over the E Gulf, and Florida,
E of 90W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered
over the NW Gulf near 26N95W. Upper level diffluence is over
Louisiana, and the E Gulf enhancing convection. Expect numerous
strong convection to advect over S Florida and the Straits of
Florida over the next 24 hours.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. See above.
Elsewhere, a surface trough extends over the central Bahamas and
central Cuba from 25N77W to 21N79W, moving north-west at 10 kt.
Numerous strong convection is over central Cuba from 20N-24N
between 75W-80W. Localized flooding with mudslides are possible.
Further south-east, Scattered moderate convection is over the
central Caribbean mostly S of Hispaniola from 13N-18N between
68W-77W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered
over the W Atlantic near 21N58W producing diffluence over the
central Caribbean and enhancing convection. Another small upper
level high is centered over the S Bahamas near 22N75W. Expect
the trough over central Cuba to be the dominate features over
the next 24 hours. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over
the island. The heavy convection associated with the surface
trough is now north-west of the island, and convection due to
upper level diffluence is mostly S of the island. Expect more
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24
hours however, as residual tropical moisture persists.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Besides the numerous strong convection over the central Bahamas,
scattered showers are over the S Bahamas. Further east, a 1012
low is centered near 31N66W. A surface trough extends S from the
low to 26N66W. The system is moving NW at 10 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Tropical
Storm Gaston is over the central Atlantic. See above. A 1026 mb
high is over the central Atlantic near 40N36W. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the trough over central Cuba and the central
Bahamas to move to the Straits of Florida with numerous strong
convection. Also expect Gaston to continue to move north-west
with convection. For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ 
Formosa