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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
122 
AXNT20 KNHC 062349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 999 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 31.5N76W SUN
ON 07/1200 UTC. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N
W OF A COLD FRONT FROM LOW TO 27N77W TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 75W
SUNDAY NIGHT ON 08/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 05N08W TO
03N20W TO 03N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 37W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1021 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 25N91W 18N94W. 20-25 KT NW-N WINDS ARE W OF
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT N WINDS. THE
ENTIRE GULF HAS COLD AIR ADVECTION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. ZONAL FLOW IS S OF 24N. EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W IN 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TO
DISSIPATE AND A 1027 MB HIGH TO ADVECT TO LOUISIANA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...      

A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 22N82W 17N96W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
E OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF PUERTO
RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND
COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT OVER THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                          

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W
TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA
NEAR 34N87W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N W OF 75W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E
OF THE CENTER FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 49W-55W. EXPECT ON SUN FOR A
GALE TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT STORM FORCE
WINDS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA