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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
187 
AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W WITH NE WINDS 25-35 KT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE ON SAT 27/1200 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N12W AND 
EXTENDS TO 05N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N25W 
TO 05N37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 28W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N80W. 10-
20 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 91W-92W. PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS REPORTING DENSE 
FOG. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW 
FLOW OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE 
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST 
OF TEXAS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A GALE IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 20-
30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 15 
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE COAST OF N NICARAGUA N OF 13N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HAITI. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 
 
HISPANIOLA...                   

SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW CONTINUES 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL 
HIGH SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N52W AND EXTENDS 
SW TO 28N56W TO 27N75W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT N 
OF 26N BETWEEN 45W-53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE FRONTS. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
30N35W TO 22N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 26W-34W. SOUTHERLY NEAR GALE WINDS 
ARE ALSO OVER THIS AREA. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N35W WITH UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS...AND 
FOR A 1026 MB HIGH TO MOVE OVER TO THE W ATLANTIC REACHING 
34N70W WITH FAIR WEATHER.   
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA