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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
260 
AXNT20 KNHC 312342
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-
07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 03W...FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 
03W-06W...AND FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 16W-20W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                          
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER 
SOUTHERN TEXAS...EASTERN MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN 
GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE IS NOTED WELL 
TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE 
CONUS BUT HAVING LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING LARGELY SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB 
HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 
27N84W. OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER AND GENTLE TO MODERATE 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. LOOKING 
AHEAD...THE RIDGING WILL HOLD ITS PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE 
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. 
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
STRONGER S-SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE WEDNESDAY 
INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND EJECTS E-NE 
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA COASTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NE 
WINDS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE UPCOMING 
WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.         

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC 
REGION THAT DIPS A BROAD BASE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN PRIMARILY WEST TO 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE BASIN WITHIN MOSTLY DRY AIR 
AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...CONVERGENT 
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA CONTINUE TO 
GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE BASIN...GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-83W...WITH 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTING TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO 
OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT 
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE 
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TRADES PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEK.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION EXTENDING 
FROM 23N60W TO 19N73W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 68W-
77W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTH OF THE ISLAND 
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE 
INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY PROVIDING FOR 
INCREASED TRADES AND HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                           
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC 
REGION THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW TO 28N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES 
TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 32N. OTHERWISE...THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS...ONE CENTERED 
NEAR 27N66W AND THE OTHER CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 27N84W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 
40N43W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N43W SW TO 
26N50W TO 23N57W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF AND 180 NM NORTH OF 
THE STATIONARY FRONT. MUCH OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED 
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD TROUGHING TO THE NW WITHIN MAXIMUM 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. FINALLY...A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE 
EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 43N19W... 
HOWEVER A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED WITH AXIS 
FROM 35N32W TO A BASE NEAR 29N24W. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARE 
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE POSSIBLE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 28N-35N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN