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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
493 
AXNT20 KNHC 282326
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 
                        
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N08W TO 01S16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 04S28W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07S BETWEEN 
21W-30W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH CENTERED 
OVER THE NE US IS PROVIDING A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E SURFACE 
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW 
TX NEAR 29N98W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. WINDS E OF 
THE TROUGH REMAIN EASTERLY AND MODERATE WHILE TO THE W...SLIGHT 
TO GENTLE NE WINDS PREVAIL. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
ALONG THE TROUGH. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A DEVELOPING WARM 
FRONT FROM 22N95W TO 24N91W...THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 24N85W TO 25N81W. 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE COMBINATION 
OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT 
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF 
OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF WILL 
PERSIST WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE 
WEAKENING OVER THE SE GULF. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF IS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

A STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA 
BORDER EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE 
E...AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS AND GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER 
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE 
DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. 
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
      
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND 
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A 1025 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM  
31N65W TO 26N80W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE EXIT REGION 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM 
THE E GULF...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC S OF 32N. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE 
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LATER 
DISSIPATE BUT STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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ERA