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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
967 
AXNT20 KNHC 241158
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA 
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 6N24W 
4N36W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG 
FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W 
AND 28W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE 
FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N 
BETWEEN 28W AND 42W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND 30W. THE 
WIND FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT ALONG 30W. SOME OF IT CONTINUES 
NORTHEASTWARD...AND SOME OF IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL 
SECTIONS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.   
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS 
INLAND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS...SET TO MOVE INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS TO GUATEMALA. 
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXTH...KVBS...
 
KGBK...KGRY HAS LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR 
LESS AND FOG...KSPR HAS VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND 
FOG...KIPN HAS CLOUD CEILINGS AT 7000 FEET...KIKT...KVOA... 
KVKY...KMIS HAS A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE 
OR LESS AND FOG...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND 
FOG AND RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...ARE BEING REPORTED IN 
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND 
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND PATCHES OF 
RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 
AND ALABAMA...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. 
THE SAME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY ARE ALONG 
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT 
PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.
 
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W. 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE 
WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER 
OF CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM THE MONA PASSAGE 
EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 
THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND 
FLOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THAT ENDS UP IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BECOMES DIFFLUENT NEAR 14N56W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA 
CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA... 
BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. EARLIER 
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE AREA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W 
AND 81W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING 
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
ALONG 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND 
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
19N83W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO 
PLATA. 
 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST  
WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 
AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT 
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP 
AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE 
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 
22N44W AND 16N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W IN 
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N40W 26N50W 25N60W 25N68W AND 
26N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N69W TO 30N71W AND BEYOND 
32N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING 
IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 
68W AND 70W...AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 31N35W 28N38W 23N45W. 
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 34N58W...THROUGH 32N63W...TO 28N65W...AND TO 26N67W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 
13N TO THE 32N32W 25N60W 25N68W 32N70W FRONTAL BOUNDARY... 
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT