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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
509 
AXNT20 KNHC 220602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ZONE AGADIR ALONG THE 
COAST OF MOROCCO. BEAUFORT 7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST. 
THE GALE IS DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 
1036 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A 1012 MB ISOBAR OVER MOROCCO. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE AFRICAN EXTENDING FROM 11N19W TO 
3N19W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
AROUND THE WAVE WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND DUST IS N OF 
THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AS INDICATED BY SSMI TPW 
IMAGERY. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                        
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N21W AND 
CONTINUES TO 6N36W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM 3N-6N 
BETWEEN 7W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 21W-24W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 26W-40W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                       

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 31N82W TO THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS 
AT 28N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 95W-96W. A 1018 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. 5-10 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF S OF FRONT. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N89W TO 15N92W. 20 
KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT E SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF FROM 
18N-26N BETWEEN 97W-103W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR 
WEATHER. THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS 
PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING 
THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS WEAK RIDGING WITH 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND THE SURFACE HIGH REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. 10-30 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF 
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA...PANAMA 
...COSTA RICA...THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-
84W...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 74W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW 
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...
                                               
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN FRI ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-22N 
BETWEEN 67W-70W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 26N49W TO 20N60W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1036 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N27W WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL AREA 
ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 10W-12W. SEE 
ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N42W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA