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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
205 
AXNT20 KNHC 281132
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 
7N25W 5N30W AND 5N43W 5N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 34W... 
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 
44W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 4W AND 10W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND 
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 
NEAR 32N72W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH OF 22N85W BY THE COAST OF 
CUBA...TO 23N97W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...VIA THE UPPER LEVEL 
WIND FLOW. THE FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N70W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS 
ISLANDS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 19N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 19N80W AND IT CONTINUES TO 
17N86W...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE 
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W... 
AND THEN CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 
27N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N62W 27N66W 24N70W 21N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 
THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD 
CHANNEL TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.
 
STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE 
PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
MEXICO...IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... 
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. 

SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 28N96W 25N93W 
24N90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 20N 
SOUTHWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KGBK...
KATP...KIKT...AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

THE VISIBILITIES AT BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...WESLACO...AND 
MCALLEN...AND AT FALFURRIAS AND KINGSVILLE HAVE BEEN 1 MILE OR 
LESS WITH FOG DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. A LOW LEVEL 
CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
 
...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N59W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N61W...TO 15N67W...TO 13N70W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 27N43W 16N45W 9N48W. MIDDLE LEVEL 
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM SOUTH 
AMERICA NORTHWARD...REACHING 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE 17N85W 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE 27N43W 9N48W RIDGE AND THE 29N59W-TO-
13N70W TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N57W 24N59W 22N61W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 
47W AND 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 10N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N60W 
18N65W 16N70W...AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. 

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 17N85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HONDURAS TO CUBA 
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND BELIZE/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN 
CURACAO. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 7N86W INTO 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. 

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS 
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. 

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO 
DOMINGO...AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA 
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. 

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW WITH AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA 
FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR 
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW 
WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS. HISPANIOLA 
WILL END UP IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT 
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 36 
HOURS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST 
AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE INVERTED TROUGH 
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE WESTWARD AT THE 30 TO 36 HOUR TIME DURING 
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
 
...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 
THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 26N14W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N9W TO 30N19W AND TO 33N32W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N NORTHWARD FROM 
30W EASTWARD.
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 33N41W...TO 24N35W 15N27W 10N24W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 
AFRICA AND 55W. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT