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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
644 
AXNT20 KNHC 252345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT BY MON AFTERNOON WITHIN 180 
NM E AND240 NM W OF COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OFF 
THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MON. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 2N24W 3N30W ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA 39W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 32N-35W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF 
AND THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS 
ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER THE GULF IS 
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING A PORTION OF THE GULF. A SURFACE 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 24N95W 
AND A SERIES OF HIGHS INLAND OVER THE PLAIN STATES/E ROCKIES. 
THIS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC 
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE W GULF BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM THE NW 
GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BLOCKING THE COLD FRONTS TO THE E 
GULF THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF 
TONIGHT AND RACE SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON. 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE E GULF ON TUE NIGHT. 
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 
NE MEXICO ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA 
NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 18N84W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING 
A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THIS IS 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS 
EVENING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON. ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING REACHING 
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA EARLY TUE. FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP E OF NICARAGUA ON TUE AND 
WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NE TRADE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PULSE OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS 
EVENING. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO 
INCREASE TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER 
THE CARIBBEAN MON. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON TUE INTO WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS ALONG 
26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N74W WHERE IT BECOMES 
STATIONARY ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR CAMAGUEY. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO 
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N62W GIVING THE W ATLC W FLOW 
ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N39W 
ALONG 27N40W TO 24N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N40W TO 
22N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE WHICH THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH SPLIT AND IS ANCHORED WELL N 
OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON MON. A STRONG 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST EARLY MON REACHING 
FROM 32N72W TO NW CUBA MON EVENING AND REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO 
WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW