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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
137 
AXPZ20 KNHC 150307
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON SEP 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 22.6N 109.6W 930 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 15 
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT 
GUSTS 135 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 270 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 
TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.  
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE OVER THE 
EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS...AND 
MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH TUESDAY. SWELLS 
FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF 
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT 
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC 
AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

THE RECENTLY DOWN GRADED REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WERE NEAR 16.3N 
112.3W 1005 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 15 MOVING ENE OR 060 DEG AT 11 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W QUADRANT. SEAS FROM 12 
TO 15 FT LIE WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SW QUADRANT 
WITH SW SWELL. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO 
MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO 
UNTIL THEY BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF 
HURRICANE ODILE. SEE THE FINAL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
FONSECA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
THERE IS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP FROM 
THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 
10N90W THROUGH WESTERN EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT 
HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE WITHIN 
75 NM OF THE COAST FROM 10N TO 15N AND INLAND WITHIN 240 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N80W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
10N90W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N98W 1007 MB TO 13N103W...THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 14N116W TO 11N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N136W 1008 
MB TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 52N135W TO THE 1015 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER NEAR 24N138W 
TO 20N115W....BOOKENDED N OF THE AREA BY LOW PRES OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW AROUND 1000 NM NE OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THE 
DEEP LAYER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT TO ITS S BETWEEN IT AND THE 
WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH 
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE 
REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW MON...WITH A COLD FRONT 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY TUE.  

THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN 
EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG MUCH OF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE 
BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY 
ODILE...YIELDING HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS.

GAP WINDS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH A STRONG BREEZE 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC UNDER A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
HIGHER PRES OVER THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO AND DEVELOPING LOW 
PRES TO THE S ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
 
$$ 
SCHAUER