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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
221 
AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 
05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS 
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO 
07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM 
32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE 
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST 
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE 
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY 
TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH 
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W 
OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY 
A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW 
SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND 
NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS 
EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING 
THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE 
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS 
THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS 
SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL  
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE 
NIGHT.
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON. 
 
$$
NELSON