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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
688 
AXPZ20 KNHC 012103
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

T.S. ISELLE CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 126.4W AT 01/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 
1065 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW 
OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF CENTER SE SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER NW SEMICIRCLE. ISELLE IS STILL EXPECTED 
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SAT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
                                           
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N111W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 
11N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W. CONVECTION APPEARS TO 
INCREASED IN AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION BY EARLY NEXT WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT IN NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W NEAR 9 KT. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 7N82W 10N90W 8N97W 
11N104W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 11N110W TO 14N120W THEN RESUMES 
NEAR 13N129W TO A SECOND 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N138W TO 12N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 7N E OF 87W 
TO COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W TO 91W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 10N W OF 138W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 129W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE 
AREA NEAR 19N141W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE NE TO NEAR 26N124W 
DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER 
SMALLER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N111W WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES. THIS UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N113W 
THROUGH 22N121W TO JUST N OF ISELLE NEAR 18N125W. AN UPPER LOW 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA INTO THE EPAC NEAR 12N86W TO 9N89W ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. 

CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY DIMINISHED NEAR THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 
12N138W WITH A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINING. AN ASCAT PASS 
EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 
FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. THE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
SHIFT W AS THE LOW MOVES W OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.           
         
FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NIGHT AND SAT 
WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.
 
$$ 
PAW