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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
558 
AXPZ20 KNHC 231519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS S-SE 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING FROM 15.5N93W TO 11N93W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N 
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS 
WITH SHARP RIDGING EXTENDING SE ACROSS FAR SE MEXICO. THE 
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS BY 
24 HOURS AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE GFS...ECMWF AND 
UKMET ALL INDICATE THESE WINDS...WITH THE UKMET EVEN SHOWING 40 
KT 10-M WINDS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE CONDITIONS 
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING LIKELY HELPING TO 
DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 14N92W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 14N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N112W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
10N128W TO 08N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE 
E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW NEAR 
10N112W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE E AND 180 NM 
IN THE W QUADRANTS OF THE LOW NEAR 10N128W.

...DISCUSSION...

1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 
30N133W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 
20N110W. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS E OF 110W. 

NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS 
THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS TO 10 FT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 
110W WITH THE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING SE 
COVERING THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 106W BY 48 HOURS. 

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER TONIGHT...BREACHING 
30N140W BY 12 UTC FRI WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT 
ALONG WITH 8-13 FT SEAS...AND A SMALL AREA OF SW FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS 
IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE REACHING 30N127W TO 26N133W TO 23N140W 
BY 48 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS 
BY FRI EVENING...WHILE SEAS WILL STILL BE 8-12 FT BEHIND THE 
FRONT BY EARLY SAT.

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 10N112W AND  
THE OTHER NEAR 10N128W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT   
OF THESE LOWS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY