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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
802 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC SUN JUL 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.
     
...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO NEAR 19N92W INTO THE 
PACIFIC REACHING TO 09N94W MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PORTION OF THE  WAVE 
OVER THE PACIFIC...HOWEVER IT IS HELPING TO BOOST GAP WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSED MORE BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N125W TO 10N127W MOVING W AT 
AROUND 20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS HELPED FOR A NORTHWARD PERTURBATION 
TO THE ITCZ. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE IS FOUND 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE ALONG THE 
ITCZ. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N95W TO 
06N109W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N109W TO 11N125W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360-
420 NM N OF A LINE FROM 03N83W TO 03N95W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 101W...WITHIN 150 
NM NW OF A LINE FROM 10N100W TO 08N106W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N W 
OF 136W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM 
N OF A LINE FROM 06N125W TO 08N130W TO 07N134W.
        
...DISCUSSION...                                                

1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N134W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WATERS W 
OF 110W. AN EXCEPTION IS ALONG AND JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA N OF 26N WHERE EARLIER ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SHOWED FRESH NW-N WINDS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN 
PLACE DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.

THE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN WATERS DURING THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AS A TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES THROUGH THE W 
CENTRAL WATERS. NE-E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS AHEAD 
OF THE WAVE WHICH WILL SUPPORT COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON EVENING.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS HAS HELPED FOR A 
RELATIVELY RARE STRONG SUMMER TIME GAP WIND EVENT THROUGH THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE 
FORCE OVER THESE AREAS EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY 
DIMINISHED OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES 
FURTHER WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER TROPICAL 
WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL HELP ENHANCE 
ANOTHER FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN PAPAGAYO LATER TONIGHT 
INTO EARLY SUN. MEANWHILE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS THE 
TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES E OF THIS AREA AND HELPS TO INDUCE THE 
NE FLOW THROUGH THE GAP. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SUN AS THE 
WAVE PASSES WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WILL DECREASE 
TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE AREA BY MON AFTERNOON.
             
$$ 
LEWITSKY