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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
726 
AXPZ20 KNHC 192148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA  
AT 08N77W TO 08.5N85.5W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N92W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH 
WIGGLES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 06N80W...ALONG THE ITCZ 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06.5N97W TO 
07N117W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 07N133W TO 06N140W.


...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AN UPPER LEVEL CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE  
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM 
32N100W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS 
AT 11N131W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA TO THE N OF 28N...AND WILL MOVE E ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED 
E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 
16N116W TO 10N110W TO 08N130W TO 16N116W. A PLUME OF UPPER 
MOISTURE ORIGINATING WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA STREAMS E 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 04-11N BETWEEN 140-125W...THEN 
TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN ABOUT 330 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N125W TO 20N106W...THEN NARROWS AS 
IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH  
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS 
N OF THE ITCZ W OF 115W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 
15N100W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS 
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT 
NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-15N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 
20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING N TO ALONG 20N AND SPREADING E TO 
ALONG 120W. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK 
WITH THE TRADES RELAXING BELOW 20 KT LATE MON. 

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT PASSES E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ONLY A W-NW 10 KT WIND SHIFT IS 
OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS HAVE 
BUILT COMBINED SEAS UP TO 15 FT NEAR 29N139W. THIS LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH 7-
10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA ON SUN. THE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE WITH 6-8 FT CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON 
MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON TUE ACROSS THE 
COASTAL WATERS S OF 28N.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL  
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND 15-20 
KT ON SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT 
WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE ON WED INCREASING TO NEAR STORM 
STRENGTH ON WED NIGHT.
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY MON THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY TUE.
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON 
SUN...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON. 
 
$$
NELSON