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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
076 
AXPZ20 KNHC 292201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR 
29N133.5W AT 1002 MB. A SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS SEEN IN 
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 500 NM OF THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND 
MULTILAYERED MAINLY STRATOFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA 
WATERS WITHIN 500 NM OF THE CENTER. SOME MODERATE CONVECTION HAS 
RECENTLY DEVELOPED 90 TO 270 NM N OF THE CENTER AND WELL N OF 
THE LOCAL WATERS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS 
WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE N SIDE OF THE CENTER...AND A GALE 
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00 UTC SAT...WHEN THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW REACHING 
32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 
KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 11N95.5W N-NE ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE WAVE HAD BEEN MOVING 
W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT 
THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE EPAC IS NOW MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. THE TROPICAL WAVE 
WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY HAS SHIFTED 
W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES IN SW CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 12N81W 1010 MB TO 12.5N95W TO 11N109W TO 08N119W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 12N135W TO BEYOND 
11.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 
270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 109W. 

...DISCUSSION...    

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W OVERNIGHT HAS COLLAPSED AS 
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NE PACIFIC...WITH A NEW HIGH TO 
THE W AND WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXTENDING A NARROW 
RIDGE E TO NEAR 37N140W AND THEN SADDLES ACROSS AND TO THE N OF 
THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...THEN SE TO NEAR 30N122W. MEANWHILE 
TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. A MODEST  
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG NW-N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE THESE CONDITIONS 
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES 
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS. 

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
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