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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
099 
AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR 
15N98W TO 12N99W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO 
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND 
ENERGY HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N99W ALONG 11N109W TO 
10N117W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N128W. SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 
21N106W TO 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 109W TO INLAND OVER 
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W-98W AND FROM 7N-
10N BETWEEN 93W-111W. 

...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANTS OF MARIE IS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N135W. A 
SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY 
TONIGHT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION IS 
WELL N OF THE REGION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES 
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT JUST ALONG THE N BORDER MAINLY WEST OF THE 
LOW CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W-NW THEN W 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HOVERING ALONG 31N BEFORE DISSIPATING 
LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

A 1026 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 38N135W AND THEN DRAPES TO 
THE E OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE AND A SECOND NARROW RIDGE FROM 
NEAR 34N145W TO THE W OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE. MEANWHILE 
TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO IS GIVING A MODEST 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN RIDGE AND TROUGH WHICH 
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6 
TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. 

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES 
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
PAW