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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
484 
AXPZ20 KNHC 101532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC THU JUL 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
     
...TROPICAL WAVES...                           

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 09N ALONG 105W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 102W 
AND 113W.  THE WAVE IS SOMEWHAT APPARENT WITHIN THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL 
TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N117W TO 21N115W WITH A 1007 MB 
LOW EMBEDDED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM IN NE SEMICIRCLE.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
WINDS OR WAVES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY... 
THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM 
RECENTLY.  THE LOW AND WAVE ARE WELL APPARENT IN THE FIRST-LIGHT 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY...AND THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 08N93W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 09N106W TO 
08N125W...WHERE IT HAS BROKEN FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO...THEN 
CONTINUES AGAIN FROM 10N136W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 93W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 96W TO 99W.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 
113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 
120W. 
        
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 46N137W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS 
IS FORCING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS 
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT LONG-PERIOD SWELL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

GAP WINDS...                                            
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS ARE INDUCING A 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT TODAY. SHIP OZHS2 REPORTED NEAR 
GALE NE WINDS ALONG WITH 16 FT SEAS WITHIN THE GULF AT 06Z THIS 
MORNING.  FORCING FOR THE EVENT SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WEAKEN 
SOME AS WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 12 FT LATE 
TODAY.  ADDITIONALLY...THE USUAL LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING 
ENHANCEMENT OF THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED. THE EVENT SHOULD 
END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

GULF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INDUCE A GAP WIND 
EVENT STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE 
MODERATE WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 25-30 KT SATURDAY MORNING.  THE 
EVENT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW OUR 25 KT THRESHOLD BY MONDAY 
AFTERNOON.
                               
$$ 
LANDSEA