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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
434 
AXPZ20 KNHC 022158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE JUN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
THROUGH 2145 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 02/2100 UTC...HURRICANE ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N  
123.9W...OR ABOUT 840 MI...1465 KM...WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 60 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. ANDRES IS MOVING ACROSS INCREASING COOLER 
SEA SURFACE WATERS AND IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR...THUS IS FORECAST 
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A 
REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRI. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL 
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING 
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC 
PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

AT 02/2100 UTC...UPGRADED HURRICANE BLANCA WAS NEARLY STATIONARY 
NEAR 13.1N 104.6W...OR ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM...SSW OF 
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM S OF MANZANILLO 
MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. CURRENTLY  
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER 
AND SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER MAINLY IN THE S 
SEMICIRCLE. BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A MAJOR HURRICANE 
BY EARLY THU. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 
HOURS...THEN BLANCA SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SLOWLY NW IN RESPONSE 
TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE N. SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA 
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 97-105W ON 
THU...THEN SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRI...AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD N 
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT. THESE 
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT 
CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 06N ALONG 85W AND HAS BEEN 
PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON.  
THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND LIKELY LOSE 
IDENTITY WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 
HURRICANE BLANCA IMMEDIATELY TO THE W.   
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.   
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SW OF HURRICANE ANDRES FROM 09N132W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF 134W. 

A SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INTO ECUADOR. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING N OF 03N WITHIN 
90 NM OF  COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
04N88W...WITHIN AREA FROM 01-14N BETWEEN 94-100W...AND WITHIN 
180 NM OF 12N116W. 
 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO A BASE NEAR 27N135W. A 
SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDS S ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO TO 
SOUTHERN BAJA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE NOTED OVER HURRICANE 
ANDRES AND IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE BLANCA. THE UPPER LEVELS 
APPEAR DRY N OF 24N WHILE THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONES 
AND OTHER AREAS OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 94-122W AND WELL AS ADVECTED N AND E ACROSS 
MEXICO S OF A LINE FROM 25N108W TO 21N91W.  
    
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 
05N87W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AND S AMERICA AS PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED E ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO 
DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE WED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.
 
$$ 
COBB