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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
353 
AXPZ20 KNHC 292150
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 29 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...

A 1010 mb low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
09N98W with a tropical wave extending n to near 15N97W. The low
and wave are passing w at 8-10 kt under an upper trough that is
providing upper support for continued convection. Currently,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from
09N-15N between 96-100W.
 
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N91W through the
previously described low at 09N98W to 12N107W to a 1010 mb
embedded low pres at 11N111W, with the monsoon trough continuing
nw to 14N122W, then the trough turns sw to 07N135W where
scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ forms and then continues
sw to beyond 06N140W. 

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
mostly to the s of the monsoon trough within 180 nm either side
of a line from 06N77W to 09N95W, then over and along the monsoon
trough within 150 nm either side of a line from 13N107W to
12N130W to 10N135W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California peninsula this week supporting gentle southerly
flow across the Gulf waters, except occasionally increasing to
moderate southerly breeze across the northern gulf waters.

An inverted trough is analyzed from 18N129W to 28N123W and is
bridged by a ridge extending se from 24N120W to 17N102W. Gentle
anticyclonic winds surround the ridge across the waters w of
105W.  

Fresh n winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight
with seas building to 7 ft as the resultant ne wind wave mixes 
with long period sw swell.
      
S of 15N e of 120W: 

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails s of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate ne to e winds are observed n of the monsoon
trough. 

Fresh northeasterly winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo 
tonight and again on Thu night. Guidance is suggesting a slightly 
stronger event on Fri night with strong e winds near 12N89W.

Long period southwesterly swell with combined seas currently to
9 ft will subside below 8 ft by early Fri.

Guidance stills indicates a surface low will develop near 10N99W
on Fri night and track generally wnw and gradually strengthen 
over the weekend reaching near 12n112w on Mon night.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 15N w of
120W. A swath of ne 7-9 ft seas primarily due to ne swell is
observed n of 24N between 128-134W. These conditions will spread
sw through Fri and then be reinforced by another surge of large
n swell reaching along 32N between 118132w on Thu night with 8-
12 ft across the waters n of 25N between 119-135W.
  
$$
Nelson