LOGIN | REGISTER

Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
949 
AXPZ20 KNHC 280917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS NEAR 24.4N 127.8W 995 MB AT 0900 UTC 
AUG 28 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 
KT GUSTS 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM 
ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 27 
FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE. MARIE IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE MOVING NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND OVER COOLER 
WATERS AND INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE 
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST 
TROPICAL STORM BY LATER TODAY. LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL 
GENERATED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS...AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW 
MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG SWELL FROM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT 
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS 
SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION THROUGH THU. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON MARIE...AND THE LOCAL 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON IMPACTS FROM 
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 14N85W TO 10N105W TO 
12N109W. RESUMES 13N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 94W-98W.

...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL HAS MOVED NW OF THE ARE. HOWEVER 8-10 
FT SWELL IS N OF 16N W OF 135W ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
LOWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MERGE WITH MARIE TONIGHT.

THE SMALL REMNANT LOW OF KARINA CAN STILL BE SEEN IN SATELLITE 
NEAR 16N123W. THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR 
KARINA THIS EVENING BUT SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO 
PULSE NEAR THE CENTER. WINDS ASSOCIATED THE REMNANT LOW HAVE 
DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20 KT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. 

MIXED SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM MARIE INTERACTING WITH 
FADING SWELL THAT HAD BEEN GENERATED BY LOWELL AND KARINA. 
MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE 
TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS 
EXPECTED.

$$
DGS