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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
123 
AXPZ20 KNHC 312204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Aug 31 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Hurricane Lester is centered at 18.0N 139.9W, or about 869 nm
east of Hilo, Hawaii at 2100 UTC Aug 31, moving west at 11 kt
around the southern periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
115 kt, with gusts to 140 kt. Associated convection currently
numerous moderate to strong from 17N to 19N between 138W and
141W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 16N to 21N
between 138W and 142W. A general weakening trend is forecast
during the next 48 hours. The center of Lester is crossing 140W
and all associated conditions are forecast to shift west of 140W
early Fri. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC, and the latest high
seas forecast under WMO header FZPN02 KWBC for additional
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 12N87W to 14N104W to
10N118W to 12N130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 10N east of 89W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 93W and 113W,
from 06N to 13N between 117W and 129W and from 09N to 13N west
of 133W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A sub-tropical ridge will maintain moderate nw flow, with 3 to 6
ft seas, across the Pacific waters adjacent to the Baja
Peninsula tonight, except for moderate to fresh nw flow, with 6
to 8 ft seas, expected across the northern waters generally to
the n of 27N and w of 117W. Winds will diminish to a gentle to
moderate nw flow tonight, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily due to
mixing long period sw and nw swell. Little change then expected
through Sun night, except for the possibility of a tropical low,
or tropical cyclone, developing s of the area on Sat, and
tracking northward on Sat night and Sun, reaching near 18N110W
on Sun night. 

A surface trough will meander over the Baja Peninsula, and
across the northern Gulf of California supporting light and
variable flow across the Gulf of California through Monday
night, except increasing to moderate southerly flow between 30N
and 31N on Fri night, and fresh to locally strong southerly flow
expected in the same area on Sat night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds will prevail s of
the monsoon trough axis, with light to gentle w to nw winds
forecast n of the trough axis. Long period cross equatorial
southwesterly swell, with combined seas of 5 to 8 ft will begin
to subside on Thursday evening. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Except as previously mentioned, a quasi-stationary surface ridge
will extend from near 32N140W to near 20N118W through Sun night.
In the wake of Lester on Thu, moderate to fresh ne to e flow
will develop s of the ridge and n of the monsoon trough, with
combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, with little change through the
weekend. Moderate to fresh n to ne flow is forecast n of the
ridge, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas through the weekend.

An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles sw of the
s-central coast of Mexico late this week, or early next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development in 3 to 5 days as this system tracks northwestward. 

$$
Ramos