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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
167 
AXPZ20 KNHC 222152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 05.5N89W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS 
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN 
EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 111W...THEN THE ITCZ AXIS TURNS WSW TO BEYOND 
05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF PACIFIC COLOMBIA N OF 05N AND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA TO THE E OF 85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N102W TO 08N120W. THE 
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N111W TO 11N110W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 10N112W TO 18N102W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO WELL DEFINED BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 
12N120W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION 
NEAR 31N128W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF DRY UPPER AIR 
DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N W OF 116W. 

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
16N140W TO 09N113W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE 
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF 
LINE FROM 12N109W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 
18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE DISSECTING THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N131W TO 17N104W. THE GRADIENT 
IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS...AND 13-15 KT 
SEAS PER A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS...ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL 
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 121-124W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE 
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 
THE RIDGE...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS 
OF 11-13 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-13N W OF 132W. THE 
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH THE TRADES DIMINISHING TO 
20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING 
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE 
CURRENT 6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE. HOWEVER...NE 20-25 KT 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON EARLY NIGHT...AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR 
27N117W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.     

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. 
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING 
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG FETCH 
WATERS NEAR 27N ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED 
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW EARLY WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW BY 
EARLY THU. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHERLY 20-30 KT 
WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED 
MORNING THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE FORCE ON WED 
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY 
THU EVENING. 
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT 
SURGE WILL BEGIN LATE THU AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AT 09N91W ON FRI 
AFTERNOON.
  
$$
NELSON