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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
433 
AXPZ20 KNHC 261516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 35-40 KT AS ANOTHER SHOT OF STRONG 
HIGH PRES SURGES SEWD ACROSS EASTERN AND SE MEXICO BRINGING MORE 
COLD DENSE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11-
17 FT IN THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS INCREASE. SEAS WILL 
BE FURTHER TO AROUND 19 FT BY LATE TONIGHT...AND ONLY SUBSIDE 
SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS LITTLE LET UP IS EXPECTED WITH THE GALE 
WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE OF LONG 
DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 5N77W TO 4N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
4N95W TO 8N125W TO 0N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 70 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W-91W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 15N135W. A 95-125 KT JETSTREAM IS 
JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH. 
AN 85-95 KT JET IS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N136W TO 
15N125W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS 
FROM 32N130W TO 20N124W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
31N133W. SWLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
ACROSS MEXICO N OF 25N.

A COLD EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 24N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG AND 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE W OF THE 
FRONT ALONG WITH 9-11 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8-10 FT SWELL ARE 
NW OF A LINE 32N123W TO 15N130W TO 9N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME 
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT 
OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

ELY 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AND SEAS WILL BUILD 
TO 8-10 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS FT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

$$ 
DGS