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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
478 
AXPZ20 KNHC 290215
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 29 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave n of 08N along 96.5W is moving westward at 15
kt. The wave is passing under an upper trough with favorable
conditions for convection. Currently...scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 07N-11N within
between 89-95W and from 10-14N between 95-99W.
 
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N96W to an embedded
low pres 10N110W to 12N123W to 1011 mb low 10N130W.
Scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ forms just sw of the low
at 10N130W and continues sw to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm
either side of a line from 05N77W to 08N81W...within 120 nm
either side of a line from 08N90W to 08N104W to 13.5N107W to
10N120W to 12N122W to 06N137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California peninsula this week supporting light to gentle
southerly flow across the Gulf waters through Wed, then increasing
to a gentle to moderate southerly breeze and continuing 
through Fri.

An inverted trough is analyzed from 15N124W to 29N122W and
effectively separates the subtropical ridge from a 1015 mb high
pressure at 26N117W, with a ridge extending se to near 16N104W.
Light anticyclonic winds surround the high and ridge across the
waters w of 100W.  

Strong N winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight
and again on Wed night with seas building to 9 ft as the
resultant ne wind wave mixes with long period sw swell.
      
S of 15N e of 120W: 

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails s of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate ne to e winds are observed n of the monsoon
trough. 

Gulf of Papagayo gap winds of 15 to 20 kt from the NE to E are 
expected each night through Thu night with an increase to 20 to
25 kt on Fri night. Seas are expected to max at 8 ft in and 
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo.

Long period southwesterly swell...combined seas to 10 ft...will
continue to propagate ne and mix with the n and ne swells
propagating out of the gap areas.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 15N w of 120W.
A swath of ne 7-9 ft seas primarily due to ne swell is observed
n of 28N between 124-128W. These conditions will spread sw
within 150 nm of a line from 30N128W to 23N133W on Wed.
 
Long period cross-equatorial SW swell have caused seas to build
to between 8 and 9 ft S of 10N and E of 125W. Seas will begin to
subside tonight.
  
$$
Nelson