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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
299 
AXNT20 KNHC 161040
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                          
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N17W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N 
BETWEEN 22W-28W WITH CLUSTERS FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-
45W. 

...DISCUSSION...
 
GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0900 UTC ENTERS THE 
GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MIAMI AND KEY WEST 
TO 24N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN 
NEAR 21N88W TO NW GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E 
OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM W 
OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH 
OVER OHIO. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL 
THEN DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN PUSH 
EASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS 
MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY 
STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 20N86W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND NEAR 
15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND 
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE 
S OF 20N. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI 
AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY 
INCREASING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0900 UTC 
NEAR 32N75W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA 
NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
45/60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS 
AND CAICOS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 63W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO JUST N 
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 
21N-27N BETWEEN 54W-59W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA. 
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK TONIGHT THEN 
WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS 
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW