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Atlantic Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion
 
493 
AXPZ20 KNHC 020300
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

T.S. ISELLE WAS UP GRADED TO HURRICANE AT 02/0300 UTC. HURRICANE 
ISELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 127.3W AT 02/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 
1065 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW 
OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NW OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. PLEASE SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
                                           
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N112W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 
11N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W. CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY 
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE 
WEEKEND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN NEXT 
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W NEAR 9 KT. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 7N81W 9N90W 8N97W 
11N104W TO 1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N112W TO 14N120W THEN RESUMES NEAR 
13N130W TO SECOND 1007 MB LOW NEAR 11N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 8N E OF 93W TO COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE 
AREA NEAR 19N141W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE NE TO NEAR 27N126W 
DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ANOTHER 
SMALLER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N112W WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES. THIS UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N114W 
THROUGH 22N121W TO JUST N OF ISELLE NEAR 18N126W. AN UPPER LOW 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA INTO THE EPAC NEAR 12N87W TO 10N89W ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 93W. 

CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY DIMINISHED NEAR THE 1007 MB LOW NEAR 
11N139W WITH A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINING. AN ASCAT PASS 
EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH LATER OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 FT 
IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL. THE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SHIFT 
W AS THE LOW MOVES W OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.    
         
FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NIGHT AND SAT 
WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.
 
$$ 
PAW