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Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion

Active Tropical Systems Basin Outlooks Satellite
Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Discussion
 
392 
AXPZ20 KNHC 230920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N95W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N108W TO 10N112W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N112W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 11N121W 1009 MB TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 12N106W TO 
10N109W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 11N104W. CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 
10N BETWEEN 120W AND 129W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING 
TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 17N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION 
FROM 10N-27N W OF 120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE 
PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND 
SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS. BY MON NIGHT... 
EXPECT INCREASING SE WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST 
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MARINE GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS SE TO S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 
FT PARTICULARLY N OF 27N W OF 134W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO REACH 30N140W BY TUE NIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N120W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 11N122W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN WHILE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND 
ASSOCIATED SEAS BY LATE TODAY. CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED 
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND NOW SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM S 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. 

A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE NW AND N-CENTRAL 
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE 
SUN AND MON. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES 
RELATED TO THE TRADES KEEPING SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE TODAY... 
REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. THESE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH 
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING HIGH PRES 
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT WITH 
THIS WIND EVENT BY LATE MON.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A 
GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ON WED. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD 
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS 
EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY 
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY 
WED. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE 
INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 24 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS... 
CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE 
MADE.
 
$$
GR