This weekend

where do you see that it's changed? still holding good conditions at about 4-6 foot, with 20 mph NW winds for Sunday in MD...

 

Surfline is weak on their forecasting, there has been many days that it's said poor 1-2 ft and it's been 3-4 ft and decent. I think swellinfo is much more reliable and the hour-by-hour height chart is a pretty sweet visual aid. Moral to the story - trust swellinfo.

 

I was having a similar dillemma and emailed surfline about it this afternoon because they were taking longer than usual to update the forecast. I quickly got this respoonse from one of the surfline forecasters.

"Still working on the forecasts for the EC at this point. I am working my way northward on the updates over the next couple of hours. It looks like we may tone down heights for Sunday due to a more northerly track of the system. Kurt Korte sent me this on the hand off of the forecasts - ' looking at the forecast for the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Saturday/Sunday. That models have trended towards a more northerly track, taking the system over or very close to Cape Cod. Yesterday, the models were a bit further offshore which I thought would send some swell back to NJ/DE/MD on Sunday with good conditions. Doesn't look like as much will be leftover Sunday so you will probably want to knock those wave heights down."

I think as of a few days ago sunday was looking pretty good but now will be windier than they expected and the swell is hitting earlier i.e. saturday afternoon and dying out much more quickly.

As a side note in my humble opinion posts about upcoming conditions are okay so long as its something more than the usual "is there going to be surf this weekend"

 

I am gonna wait until the AM to make the call. Still conflicted on when the wind change will occur. The daylight really starts to decline this time of year.

 

I'm kind of on the fence on this one. This storm seems to have a fair amount of uncertainty associated with it both in terms of surf and snow. While it's been changing all week, right now swellinfo says 5-6 ft @ 5-6 seconds coming from the north...I would think any minor change in the path of this storm can change that dramatically.

 

Curious what make you(kielsum ) feel good about going out after reading the surfline response? Sounds negative to me.. Anyway a day ago thought we would have a great Sunday of surf but I just changed my plans now looking towards thurs ...

 

also, i agree that this is a good topic for discussion. It's especially interesting to hear what gets factored in to the forecasts. I think the moderator would agree too since he just created a new sub-category in the forums for this:

http://www.swellinfo.com/forum/threads/13546-New-Weather-and-Surf-Forecasting-Forum

 

I'd be pretty amazed if it was totally flat on Sunday.

 

if only it didnt cost an arm and a leg to travel to long beach for the day. Could you imagine?? We could surf clean waves every swell with the exeption of SE wind days. F*ck new york

 

Get here here at 1 pm. Then make love to the ocean.

 

Nah, for local swell events, it makes sense to keep it in the local forum. But, for just general weather/ocean/wave science type talk, we can take in the Weather and Surf Forecasting Forum.

But, staying on topic, for Maryland. Its going to be a super nasty day on Saturday, but it looks like we are going to see a late day cleanup. Have to keep an eye on it, and we may only have a couple hours of clean surf, but that will probably be the best of this swell.

For Sunday, looks to be some moderate sized N wind swell, but its going to be real short period and windy with strong NW/NNW winds. Not really excited about Sunday for MD as of now.

Hope that helps,

 

I was also on the fence for sunday morning but surfersupplies came out with a update tonight saying early will be 3 to 4 plus and clean so im feeling pretty good about it. I usually like there forecasting and has never been to far off. Im thinking early morning will be real fun

 

And cold, winter is here, was snowing earlier!