Good Job on Forecast

Thanks, I appreciate the positive feedback. There is no one more critical on the forecasts, then me.
Its always a work in progress, and modeling of the hurricanes is always a little more uncertain, since they aren't tested very much.

 

you need to fix the VB forecast... too much red... oh lolz

 

Thanks for your efforts.I don't live close enough to look at the beach every day.This site saves me a ton of time.

 

any new updates coming soon micah?

 

Yes... A lot of them.
Please wait for details.

 

Question, about a week or so ago I believe you mentioned that you noticed that the different models were showing very different wave sizes for certain areas. I noticed that the forecast on here was very very conservative for this (specifically Ponce / NSB Inlets) area. Forecast was only waist - chest high at best over this past weekend but other sites (mainly SL) had it at 5-7ft most of the week and it turned out that it was everything they predicted to the "T". This site has helped me catch many of sessions over the years, but why was it so off this storm? I'm talking 3-4ft underforecasted. I'm not complaining (I scored anyways), just wondering why the big difference.

 

Why do you think it was? (not trying to be a smart ass, just curious and its a good exercise to provide an opinion based on your own forecasting knowledge).

 

Honestly? I think it's the models being used. This happened last weekend, it also happend for Debbie and Isaac. Almost every time SL nails it on the big storms, and SI is usually more conservative. However, when there isn't a big storm out there i've noticed SI to be completely accurate, maybe more reliable than SL at times. It's the storm tracker / model they use, that's all I can come up with. What's your guess?

 

prob same as yours or similar. I'm guessing the storm was slightly off track which accounted for the drop in size.

 

on the other hand, SI said he thought his own forecasts were undercalling it for this weekend (sunday in particular). But, the 2-4 SI ft forecast seemed much more accurate than the 4-7 ft that SL called for.

 

for south jerz it was pretty accurate since last wednesday.

 

If anything, it was a bit underestimated here, but again, it was very spot-dependent. Some beaches were much bigger, but at most spots, it was within the range expected.

 

The weird thing is, on Saturday the waves were easily 5-7ft on a day where the forecast was 2-4ft, and since Sunday was forecasted to pretty much be identical then I would think having actual evidence that the waves are approx 3-4ft larger than expected, that Sunday would have had an upgraded forecast, taking into account what is actually happening real time. But the forecast never changed, it remained the same even after recording much larger waves at the time of the forecast.

 

My point to Micah was, did he ever figure out why the SI model was so conservative vs. the others that were available, because I do remember him saying he thought it may be off. Now that the event has passed, evidence should be available to sort these things out no?

 

The Swellinfo modelling of the hurricane scenarios can be improved, and I believe I have some answers and working on testing right now.

 

let's hope there are many more chances to validate your testing in the coming weeks!

 

SI was on the low end and SL was on the high end...we wound up getting somewhere between chest to head high for the majority of the swell for VB. soon SI will be a forecasting machine with time and SL will more than likely stay the same

 

Looks like it... A tropical depression should be identified soon in the Eastern Atlantic... Global models show a similar path to Leslie. Got to love September.

 

My boss hates you Micah!