Which is the best forecast site?

So I get up before sunrise this morning for my usual Dawn Patrol and check the forecasts before heading out the door. I couldn't check the cam because it was still dark out, but I look at the buoy - which is 1/4 mile from my break. It is saying approx. 5.4ft significant and 8.2 maximum @10secs, but I don't completely trust it because it has been reading a little high (IMHO) since it's last maintenance.

The forecasts are so different from each other that I don't know what to make of them... I usually check SI and SL, but today I looked at MSW as well because of all the hoopla, even tho' their closest break to me is an hour or so away.

Here are the screen grabs from all three and a couple of pictures of the surf. Who do you think came closest to a correct forecast?



(IMO, MSW is an automatic fail for not having a forecast for my part of the coast, but I stuck it in there for shigs and tiggles)

Disclaimer: I am NOT the guy in the speedo. I just took the photo to get a perspective of the wave size with someone on it!

 

Yep, so much so that I haven't had a chance to post : Five days of surf and finally had to take today off because I was starting to get tired.

24th - Hadn't surfed in a week. Head high, windy and messy so went to the kiddie break where it's wind protected and was waist to chest.
25th - Wind coming down but couple feet overhead and messy. Back to kiddie break.
26th - Back to my usual spot. Head high and crowded (Sunday. 20-25 people.). Semi bumpy but oh so nice! Rights not lining up but some quick fast lefts. I'm goofy so it's all good.
27th - Maybe a foot overhead and only six guys out. Super fun.
28th - A little smaller with set waves around head high, a little longer between sets, but lining up beautifully and consistently. Three different peaks lining up into one long awesome right with a four to five minute paddle back.
29th - (Today) Much smaller - maybe chest high? Windy. Tired. Drove by before daybreak, thought about paddling out, watched some guys get some, went home.

As for the forecast? I think SL may have been the most accurate, consistently calling for 4-6 ft (shoulder high to 1ft overhead), but SI was close enough and free! No one got the wind right this week. The wind forecasts are correct for the afternoon, but they were always wrong in the morning.

Sorry about the long, pseudo journal entry, but man it's been a fun week and I figure with all the Belmar hashtags, I should talk up my warm, clear, water.

 

I had a chance to talk to him in the lineup the next day. Nice guy. He came here from HI for a longboard competition last weekend and won the 60+ age group. The pic doesn't show it, but he was walking up and down and hanging off the nose nicely. 62 years old and going strong. I was tired after three hours and left - he kept going and was there again the next day and the next. Told me he's been surfing for forty years. I only hope I have that stamina at that age. Maybe a speedo would provide some kind of aerodynamic benefit that will improve my surfing?