Just saying, I know everyone on here gets all uptight when a swell, even a small one is on the way... Ya know, the don't jinx it threads. But I will tell you what, SI was on point 7 days ago about yesterdays swell, and it came to fruition exactly as predicted, while OTHER forecasting sites were only recognizing the recessive SSE swell at 4 seconds, SI's calculations were on point as the 8 second periods began to show right around mid day yesterday.... You made me look like a meteorological genius. Told the crew, just sit tight. It will be here. Yesterday, at around lunch time, the bros ran by our spot, reported back that it was lake like conditions... I said boys, the tide is wrong. Have some faith. We have a window from 3pm-sunset and TRUST me, there will be at least waist high waves.... SURE they thought.... As we unload my truck and get on the sandy pathway, the sound of waves crashing from 400 yards behinds the dunes left us intrigued. Thats a good sign says my one friend. As we walk over the dunes, and see the waist high peelers, albeit onshore and choppy, but hey, it would be flat otherwise... I looked at the crew and said, told you mother f&*^*&s. Micah: All forum joking aside, you guys have been on point for all the swells I can remember recently. And for that, I thank you. You have been keeping a working/family man stoked and informed so that he can vanish from responsibility without a trace when swell arrives.
Fun playful stuff all weekend, and it looks like some more in the days ahead! Its amazing how less picky we become when the weather is nice.
Not here. there was a long board invitational in VB over the holiday which assured zero waves. I thought I saw some Mon, but, it disappeared as I was getting prepared.
Well it was wrong here again today. It was flat today again(knee high at one break with onshore winds...flat the entire rest of the state), when forecast was knee to waist high. SI was calling for thigh to waist last saturday and it was as flat as a lake. SI is only as good as the GFS. For some reason surfline was calling for flat and was right this time. It flip flops though. Sometimes surfline is the one that is wrong. oh and 7 days out is just pure luck to be right. It's like flipping a coin.
Its not pure luck...its pure forecasting....I may be going out on the limb, and im just talking about my area, but S.I. is more right than wrong on a seven day forecast, and if they are wrong its not by a whole lot, swell wise....now winds are a different issue
I don't want to get into a pissing match. But honestly, my area is completely tide dependent, so there are many factors that come into play depending on where you live. So yes, if you live in my area and you are unaware of all the factors that will produce the optimal result from forecasting than yes, you would probably disagree with me. Like I said in my post, at noon, it said it was 1-2 feet but it was flat... But you have to remember that NONE of the forecast sites take into consideration the tides and local affects... The forecasts are only designed to explain to you what the conditions will be at the optimal time... And if you look at my location on SI or on SURFLINE, they both say the same thing... MID-HIGH tide... If you try and surf ANY other time than that, not only will the forecast be wrong, the report will be completely wrong too.... Maybe it hasn't been on point in your area. I am just saying, I live in one of the most Fickle spots in the SE, and I am VERY impressed that Micah has been able to hit the nail head on... It has been on it all year. Down here anyway. Can't vouch for RI though.
And here is the example I will use... And PLEASE, PLEASE PLEASE, I don't want to start up another Buoy conversation about Buoy science... I will tell you though: 7 days ago, Swell info said at 3:00pm, the DOMINANT buoy reading would be 1.3 ft @ 8 Seconds.... And sure enough, yesterday at 3:00pm, I checked the Buoys and BAM... 1.3 ft @ 8 seconds... That is not luck, that is proper forecasting technology.... Now I know how you feel about buoys, but for me, I have been reading buoys for 15 years and buoys tell me EVERYTHING I need to know. A SSE swell and 1.3ft @ 8 second with 10 knot wind from the SE, at a mid to high tide in this area, will produce ALMOST exactly the same surf conditions, every single time... You can take that buoy info and wind data, along with the tide and replicate it 100 times and 100/100 times, it would have look exactly like it did yesterday... That is why I was confident going down there, and it was exactly what it was supposed to be.... So, I wasn't worried about what SI's forecast models and all that sh** said, or what the green man looked like or if it said waist to chest a week out. I ran my mouse over the timeline and got to 3:00 on Monday afternoon and it showed a long period swell coming in. Step one. Check. I looked at it 7 days out, I knew the high tide was at 7pm and the longer period swell would show at 3:00, and bam... That gives me all I need to know... Be at the beach at 5:00 and the conditions will be ideal, and they were. If you showed up at noon, it was flat. If you showed up at 8:30 before sunset, it was back to ankle and crappy. The surf will only be at its ideal conditions if you follow the specifics of your local beach or region. Rhode island may not have all the factors and tide issues we have. Nobody is perfect, I am just saying Surfline and MSW were DEAD wrong about the swell yesterday.,.. Only one guy knew whats up and it was micah
They tell you everything you need to know if you're a mariner. lol I have no idea how close to shore your buoy is. I know the deal in RI though. You can't trust them 100%. You need cams/spot checks otherwise you'll be getting skunked like crazy. If you don't mind wasting gas then just pay attention to the buoy in RI. MSW is terrible for east coast of U.S.. Surfline and Swellinfo are MUCH better. They are about the same accuracy wise. Wave forecasting is a weather forecast. It's inexact and wrong on many occasions. Block island buoy was 3.9 feet at 6 seconds out of the SSW. This should deliver a waist high wave in a sets. SSW direction even gets into east facing breaks normally. Swell died by the time it hit RI. . Extreme SW exposures across the bridge saw barely knee high slop with onshore winds. Due S exposures as well as ESE facing breaks(gansett) saw nothing. I could give other examples throughout the past few weeks of buoy height not equaling what's hitting the beach. Again, buoy is way offshore. It sits farther offshore than nantucket. And trust me nantucket is most consistent break on the entire east coast. What's hitting nantucket is not what's hitting RI on many occasions even on a due S swell. Nantucket sits farther out in the ocean and so does block island buoy. Waves lose height as they travel.
1.3 feet at 8 seconds....wft are you riding? That's flat. 3 feet at 7 seconds or I don't even bother.(2.6 feet at 9 seconds can work too) That's minimum wave height for me to get to the beach. Places I ride around here are not heavily tide dependent like you describe in your area.
Couldn't agree more. Been using this site for years and I can count on one hand how many times it's been wrong and I got skunked. 9/10 times it's 100% accurate and when it's wrong it's not off by much. Micah has it dialed in for most areas. Even though this site won't steer you wrong, I still pay for Surfline premium though, because I enjoy having access to all the HD cams, camera rewind, LOLA charts, long-term forecasts, detailed forecast based on specific breaks, travel info for breaks you'll be visiting, access to some good articles (not all), and the footage they get in crystal clear HD in both pics, videos and live stream to events is pretty sweet, and I don't mind paying for it. But having said all that Swellinfo is where I check first, it's what I trust, and what gets it done most of the time. Having both sites and being able to compare the data is really good too because over time you know who to trust under certain conditions after you notice patterns. For example if it's the summer, you better believe Swellinfo has got better accuracy. If it's a major swell event like a TS or Hurricane, or maybe even a huge low, Surfline tends to be more on top of it as they (the Surfline forecasters) are actually paying attention and have all the resources to get it right. Not to say Swellinfo gets it wrong on those major swells, because they too get it right most of the time, but when I see the data conflicting I find the middle ground between the two and that's usually a good formula where I'm at. The tides have everything to do with it in most every situation. I have spots that I hit at low tide that I'll surf until it fills in and then I'll get out, get in my vehicle and drive 5-10 minutes to a spot that is good on high tide and continue on with my session. Unless it's a really solid swell, days like that it breaks all day long and I typically will just camp out there and surf until my arms fall off. Just takes time and dedication to a few spots to figure out a system that works and you'll almost always have a wave to surf it there is any swell in the water what-so-ever.
I am the judge and since I can't see a certain member's posts due to gladly having them on ignore, I declare zach and SUP and the others to have won this debate by my arbitration as all I can see is their coherent arguments. The end. Spicoli has spoken.
This is the biggest load of crap I've heard in my life. Of course no surprise there considering it's dawnpatrol posting. I've seen MULTIPLE times PER YEAR that the forecast says no waves and there's waist high waves. And vice versa. Only an idiot(dawn patrol) would take a weather forecast as "certainty". Or take a buoy report WAY off the f'ing coastline as gospel. This site is a GREAT tool for planning, but you can only rely on cams/reports/actual spot checks to know what's going down. Years ago I made the mistake of just paying attention to the forecast and I missed a few swells and then vowed never again.
The buoys have been programmed to lie only to you. They can read your ip code or some hi tech razzimitazz, and I'll bet it was Erock that gamed the system so it would recognize you and only you. He has the technology! I would investigate this phenomena and report back.
Dawn patrol...You talk so much **** to me in the past(unprovoked) and then you make an asinine comment like that. You attacked first buddy boy...so now I'm giving you the spanking you deserve little boy.
All that being said, I'm a SI addict. I check every 6am, noon, 6pm update ON THE MINUTE hitting refresh. Great site, but of course it's just a forecast and it's an inexact science. It's not a REPORT. It's a FORECAST
